| 非正规金融、技术创新与产业结构升级 |
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| 引用本文： | 聂高辉,邱洋冬,龙文琪.非正规金融、技术创新与产业结构升级[J].科学学研究,2018,36(8):1404-1413. |
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| 作者姓名： | 聂高辉 邱洋冬 龙文琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.
2. 江西财经大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 我国人口老龄化的产业结构升级溢出效应研究;大数据时代下江西省人口老龄化与城镇化建设的相关性研究 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于非线性视角,采用时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR)模型,从时间和时点维度对1985年以来我国非正规金融、技术创新与产业结构升级之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：非正规金融、技术进步对产业结构升级的影响具有短期与长期的差异性,即技术创新的短期影响显著大于长期,而非正规金融的长期影响显著大于短期;从总体看,非正规金融、技术进步对产业结构升级存在正向的促进作用,且无论是短期还是长期,产业结构升级对非正规金融较技术创新敏感;非正规金融对技术创新和产业结构升级的影响具有累积冲击效应,而技术创新对产业结构升级表现为及时响应;三者的关系在不同宏观背景下呈现出较为类似的走势,且冲击影响大小有所不同,但是“十五”以来,我国非正规金融与技术创新对产业结构升级的冲击作用几乎没有得到提升。据此,笔者强调在“十三五”规划时期,政府应该充分认识到现阶段对技术创新投入的不足并规范有效地引导非正规金融促进技术的创新,以增加资本投入与技术创新保障产业结构的优化升级以及经济的平稳增长。
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| 收稿时间： | 2017-09-05 |
Informal Finance,Technological Innovation and Upgrading of Industrial Structure -A Time-Varying Feature Based on TVP-VAR Model |
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| Abstract: | Based on the non-linear perspective, the time-dependent parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is used to demonstrate the interaction between informal finance, technological innovation and industrial upgrading since 1985 and time dimension analysis. The empirical results show that the short-term and long-term differences in the impact of informal finance and technological progress on the upgrading of industrial structure are short-term and long-term differences, that is, the short-term effect of technological innovation is significantly longer than that of long-term, while the long-term effect of informal finance is significantly shorter than that of short- Formal finance and technological progress have positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure. Whether it is short-term or long-term, the upgrading of industrial structure is sensitive to the innovation of non-formal finance. The impact of informal finance on technological innovation and industrial upgrading has a cumulative impact The impact of technological innovation on the upgrading of industrial structure for the timely response; the relationship between the three in a different macro-background showing a more similar trend, the impact of different sizes, but since the "fifteen", China's informal finance and technology The impact of innovation on the upgrading of industrial structure has barely been improved. Accordingly, the author stressed that in the "thirteen five" planning period, the Government should fully understand the current stage of technological innovation investment and norms and effectively guide the informal finance to promote technological innovation to increase capital investment and technological innovation to protect the industrial structure The optimization and upgrading of the economy and the steady growth. |
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