| 中国省域农业碳排放:测算、效率变动及影响因素研究简 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴贤荣,张俊飚,田云,李鹏.中国省域农业碳排放:测算、效率变动及影响因素研究简[J].资源科学,2014,36(1):129-138. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴贤荣 张俊飚 田云 李鹏 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金：“气候框架公约下农业碳排放的增长机理及减排政策研究”（编号：71273105）；湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队：“农业资源与环境经济问题研究”（编号：T201219）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金：“农业废弃物利用与产业可持续发展的联动机制研究”（编号：2012RW002）；“农业生产净碳效应测度与价值实现路径探究”（编号：2013YB12）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文将农业碳排放纳入到农业经济核算体系之中，构建含有期望产出与非期望产出的DEA-Malmquist效率指数，在系统测算农业碳排放的基础上，对2000-2011年中国31个省（市、区）的农业碳排放效率变动趋势进行了测度，并分析了农业Malmquist碳排放效率指数及其分解指数的省域差异及变动趋势。结果表明：①农业碳排放效率变动存在省域差异，内蒙古、北京、黑龙江、吉林等24省区农业碳排放效率处于提升状态，其余7省区呈下降趋势；②三大地区农业碳排放效率指数的主要贡献因素存在较大差异，东部地区主要源自技术进步的推动且农业碳排放效率不断改善；中、西部地区主要依赖于技术效率的改善但波动性较强；③在农业碳排放效率变动的影响因素上，产业结构、耕地面积构成情况及农业受灾程度对农业碳排放效率有显著负向作用；对外开放程度、劳动力文化水平与农业碳排放效率呈显著正相关。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业碳排放 效率变动 DEA-Malmquist指数分解 Tobit模型 影响因素 |
Provincial Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China: Calculation, Performance Change and Influencing Factors |
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| WU Xianrong,ZHANG Junbiao,TIAN Yun and LI Peng.Provincial Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China: Calculation, Performance Change and Influencing Factors[J].Resources Science,2014,36(1):129-138. |
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| Authors: | WU Xianrong ZHANG Junbiao TIAN Yun and LI Peng |
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| Institution: | College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan 430070, China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China;College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan 430070, China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China;College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan 430070, China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China;College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University Wuhan 430070, China;Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper brings agricultural carbon emissions into the agricultural economic accounting system, building a DEA-Malmquist index contains expected outputs and undesirable outputs, and based on the systematic measurement of agricultural carbon emissions, estimates agricultural carbon emissions performance of Chinese various provinces from 2000 to 2011. After analysis of provincial differences and change in the Malmquist index and decomposing index of agricultural carbon emissions performance, we found that provincial differences exist in agricultural carbon emissions performance: the agricultural carbon emissions performance of 24 areas is in ascension, such as Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Heilongjiang and Jilin, and Ningxia, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Tibet, Gansu, Yunnan and Guangxi are deteriorating. The main contribution factors to agricultural carbon emission performance vary much among the three areas: the agricultural carbon emissions performance in the eastern area is improving because of technical changes, while it mainly depends on the improvement of technical efficiency in the middle and western areas with a worsening trend. Further, using the Tobit model to explore the main factors influencing agricultural carbon emission performance in China, we found that the degree of industrial structure, arable land structure and agricultural disaster level have significant negative impacts on agricultural carbon emissions. The opening degree and labor education level plays a positive role in improving agriculture carbon emissions performance. We suggest optimizing the agricultural industrial structure and accelerating agricultural modernization steadily. Establishing a low carbon agriculture development mechanism on the foundation of modern agricultural technology system is needed. Adhere to the policy of opening up and assimilate and exploit achievements overseas and elevate the quality of agriculture labor and reform the main body of agriculture production and management. With these measures China can achieve its goal to reduce national carbon emissions and realize sustainable agriculture. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural carbon emissions performance change DEA-Malmquist index Tobit model influencing factors |
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