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长江流域洪涝气候背景和致灾因子分析
引用本文:张建敏、高歌、陈峪.长江流域洪涝气候背景和致灾因子分析[J].资源科学,2001,23(3):73-77.
作者姓名:张建敏、高歌、陈峪
作者单位:国家气候中心,
基金项目:中国气象局科教司资助项目"98暴雨气候背景和各种影响因子”99-3BY-1专题.
摘    要:该文从长江流域汛期降水特征以及近50a来的气候变化等方面分析了该流域暴雨洪涝的气候成因,并以1998年特大洪水为例,着重探讨了地理、水文和人为等非气候因子的致洪作用。结果表明,近10a来,汛期气候趋于暖湿,降水变率加大,暴雨日数有增加趋势;虽然气候变化趋势及降水年际变化的异常是形成暴雨洪涝的主要原因,但近几十年来人为导致的水土流失严重和湖泊面积缩小等也是洪涝形成的重要原因。

关 键 词:暴雨洪涝  气候背景  致灾因子
文章编号:1007-7588(2001)03-0073-05
修稿时间:2000年6月27日

Climate Background of Flooding and Waterlogging and Disaste Inducing Factors of the Yangtze Valley
ZHANG Jian,min,GAO Ge,CHEN Yu.Climate Background of Flooding and Waterlogging and Disaste Inducing Factors of the Yangtze Valley[J].Resources Science,2001,23(3):73-77.
Authors:ZHANG Jian  min  GAO Ge  CHEN Yu
Abstract:The Yangtze Valley is rich in resources and culture. Yet the frequennt torrential rainfall made the Yangtze a flood river, frequently causing serious floods. Therefore, it is of great importance to analyze the rule of precipitation and climate change of the valley for deep understanding of flood formtion and correct prediction. The precipitation characteristics in flood season and climate change in the past 50 years in the Yangtze Valley were studied. In addition, the impacts of physical geography, hydrologic factors and unadvisable human activities on flood formation were analysed by taking severe 1998 flood as an example. The results indicated that: 1) climate tended to be warmer in flood season, and both variation and frequency of positive precipitation anomaly increased; 2) days of torrential rain in the flood season tended to increase slightly since the 1980s, and showed a cycle of 2 to 3 or 5 years; 3) the spatial and temporal distribution of torrential rain in this valley is in favor of flood formation and disadvantageous to flood defence; and 4) though the cycling and annual variations of precipitation are the main factors leading to floods, the severe eco environmental deterioration resulting from unadvisable human activities in the past 50 years also played a very important role in flood formation.
Keywords:Torrential rain and flood  Climate background  Flood inducing factors  
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