| 中国碳排放量测算及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋金荷.中国碳排放量测算及影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(4):597-604. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋金荷 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京,100732 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家环保公益性行业科研专项(编号：200809151)；中国社会科学院经济政策与模拟实验室资助项目。 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究碳排放问题首先需要对碳排放量进行估算。本文首先根据国家、地区、行业不同的能源消费特征和可利用的统计数据,提出了不同层次的碳排放量测算方法,并估算了全国、各个行业、各省市区的碳排放量。基于指数分解方法的特点,利用碳排放的完全指数分解方法——对数平均Divisia指数(LMDI法)定量分析了中国1995年-2007年碳排放变化的影响因素和贡献率,影响因素包括4种,即经济规模效应、结构效应、能源强度效应和碳强度效应。分解模型结果表明,不同时期这4种效应对碳排放变化的贡献率是不同的,1995年-2007年对碳排放增加影响最大的因素是经济发展。结果也提醒国家需要对这一时期内的产业政策、能源发展措施等方面进行反思。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放量 分解分析 Divisia指数法 能源效率 经济增长 碳排放强度 中国 |
An Evaluation and Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China |
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| JIANG Jinhe.An Evaluation and Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in China[J].Resources Science,2011,33(4):597-604. |
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| Authors: | JIANG Jinhe |
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| Institution: | Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, CASS, Beijing 100732, China |
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| Abstract: | Evaluation of carbon emissions is essential to studying carbon related issues. This paper provides an evaluation method of CO2 emissions at different levels in terms of different properties of energy consumption and available statistical data at national, regional, and industrial levels. A CO2 emission series at the three levels was obtained. It is concluded that: 1) the current economic development pertains to high-carbon economy due to the economic structure and economic development pattern; 2) the proportion of CO2 of the whole industry accounted for 85% of the total CO2 emission in China. In general, the carbon intensity in industries decreased, but slowly increased in the transportation sector. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Model (LMDI), which is the complete decomposition of carbon emissions with the decomposition residual item of zero, was used to perform quantitative analysis of changes in CO2 emissions and percentages of contributors for China during the period 1995-2007. Four effects resulted in changes in CO2 emissions, including economic scale, industrial structure, energy intensity or energy efficiency, and carbon intensity. The results of carbon decomposition show that contributors of the four effects to changes in CO2 emissions were different. For example, the most significant factor contributing to increases in CO2 emissions during the study period was due to economic development, followed by the change in the industrial structure and energy structure or carbon intensity. The decrease in energy intensity would lead to carbon emission reductions, but the increase in CO2 emissions during the decade was definitely caused by economic growth, and the change in economic structure and energy structure. Improvement in energy intensity has a positive effect on carbon emissions. Results also show that the four effects were not the same for different periods of time. The energy intensity decrease and economic development were the major reasons for increases in CO2 emissions during the period 1995-2000. However, the economic development could take up as large as 85.8% of all increases in CO2 emissions during the period 2002-2007. As for the explanation of the four effects, the proportion of the high-carbon emission industry became increasingly significant during recent years, e.g., the proportion of industry and transportation sectors increased and CO2 emissions of the two sectors also increased in terms of the current development pattern. The ratio of clean energy to energy consumption was rather small, e.g., the proportion of renewable energy to primary energy consumption was less than 9% in 2007. These conclusions would be helpful for formulating economic policies to address energy development measurement in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Carbon emissions Decomposition analysis LMDI Energy efficiency economic growth Carbon intensity China |
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