| 黄河远景需水分析──兼论西线南水北调的必要性 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩振强,张新海,崔荃.黄河远景需水分析──兼论西线南水北调的必要性[J].资源科学,1996(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩振强 张新海 崔荃 |
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| 作者单位： | 水利部黄河水利委员会勘测规划设计研究院 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文论述了黄河在全国经济发展中的战略地位和作用，在黄河可供水量分配方案的基础上，以１９９０年为现状，２０００年水平黄河地区工农业生产发展规划为依据，预测分析远景（２０３０年）黄河地区国民经济发展指标及对水资源的需求，并提出解决黄河地区远景缺水的对策和措施等。分析结果表明，远景黄河地区工农业及城乡生活需引水达１０６０×１０８ｍ３，需耗水８１０×１０８ｍ３，在考虑黄河可供水量及地下水充分利用的前提下，届时，黄河地区仍将缺水２５０×１０８ｍ３以上。解决黄河地区缺水的主要对策措施是实现跨流域调水。
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| 关 键 词： | 对策措施，供需分析，需水预测，发展指标，战略地位，远景，黄河 |
ANALYSIS OF THE LONG-TERM WATER DEMAND OF THE YELLOW RIVER-A DISCUSSION ON THE NECESSITY OF WEST ROUTE WATER TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH CHINA |
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| Han Zhenqiang, Zhang Xinhai, Cui Quan.ANALYSIS OF THE LONG-TERM WATER DEMAND OF THE YELLOW RIVER-A DISCUSSION ON THE NECESSITY OF WEST ROUTE WATER TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH CHINA[J].Resources Science,1996(5). |
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| Authors: | Han Zhenqiang Zhang Xinhai Cui Quan |
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| Abstract: | his paper discusses the strategic position and role of the Yellow River in national economy of China. Based on distribution scenario of the amount of water supply of the Yellow River and by taking 1990 as the year to indicate current situation and 2000 as the criteria to draw up development programme for industry and agriculture, the paper predicts and analyzese the longterm (2030) development targets of national economy of the Yellow River basin and its water demand, and puts forward countermeasures to the solution of water shortage issue in the area. Results indicate that the amount of water diverted to satisfy longterm industrial, agricultural and domestic purposes in rural-urban areas would reach 106 billion cubic meters and water consumed would amount to 87 billion cubic meters. Taking into account of the available surface water supply and effective ground-water utilization, the water shortage of the Yellow River area will still exceed 30 billion cubic meters then. Hence the key project to the solution of water deficit is inter-basin water transfer. |
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| Keywords: | Countermeasures Supply and demand analysis Water demand prediction Development target Strategic position Prospect Yellow River |
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