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城市供水安全综合评价探讨
引用本文:施春红,胡波.城市供水安全综合评价探讨[J].资源科学,2007,29(3):80-85.
作者姓名:施春红  胡波
作者单位:北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京,100083
摘    要:水安全研究始于20世纪70年代,随着水资源危机不断加深,人类社会对水安全的关注程度越来越强烈。城市是一个地区的政治、经济、文化、物流和信息中心,城市供水安全对城市公共安全具有至关重要的意义。通过分析影响城市供水安全的各个方面,构造评价指标体系,依据大量的权威统计数据,运用多元分析的主成分和因子分析方法对中国的主要城市的供水安全进行计算、分析和评价,可为城市供水管理决策提供重要的依据。依据2004年统计数据计算的评价结果,我国重点城市在城市供水的生产和供水行业的投入方面,存在着生产能力不足和投入较少的问题,但他们在在供水的使用效率和管理方面具有较高的能力。重点城市的供水安全状况两极分化严重,总体形势不容乐观。北京市目前总体供水安全状况处于比较良好的状态,但在供水生产、供水行业资金投入和节水三个方面仍然存在较为严重的问题,随着更多的人口进入北京和2008年奥运会的召开,北京市未来几年的供水安全面临着巨大的压力。

关 键 词:水安全  城市供水安全  指标体系  综合评价  因子分析
文章编号:1007-7588(2007)03-0080-06
修稿时间:2006-10-24

Synthetically Evaluating the Security of Urban Water Supply
SHI Chun-hong and HU Bo.Synthetically Evaluating the Security of Urban Water Supply[J].Resources Science,2007,29(3):80-85.
Authors:SHI Chun-hong and HU Bo
Institution:Civil and Environmental Engineering School, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Abstract:The research of water security has started since the 1970s.As the water shortage crisis aggravates,the water security has been paid more and more attention.Although many researchers work hard in this area,the definition of water security has not yet been accepted widely.The property of water security has four key points: natural property,social property,human mental property and ecological property.City is the political,economic,culture,logistic and information center of the district.Water resource is the foundation of the city and the water security has especial significance for the city.The urban water security covers a lot of research areas,and the evaluation of the urban water supply security is very important.The evaluation result of urban water security could provide more useful information for the decision-maker who deals with the water supply management.Two models of water security evaluation have been developed. One is the water poverty index(WPI) which is developed by the British Center for Ecology & Hydrology(CEH).And the other is the evaluation index system of water security which is developed by Chinese researcher HAN Yu-ping and RUAN Ben-qing.These evaluation models focus on the district water security,and the urban water supply security has its own particular characteristic.Synthetic evaluation has been applied in many evaluation areas.Principal component analysis method can substitute a small number of comprehensive variables for original multi-dimensional variables,and obviously simplify data structure in the precondition of minimizing loss of original data information.The principal component analysis can objectively give weight and avoid subjective random.In this evaluation model,9 indexes have been selected: production capacity of supply water,length of water supply pipes,water supply coverage rate,the amount of residential water use per day,number of workers and capital investment in the water supply industry,the amount and rate of supply water leakage,and the amount of saved water. The data used in the evaluation comes from the yearbook 2004 of Ministry Of Construction of P.R.China.328 cities have been selected for the evaluation.More than a half of Chinese focused cities with a population of more than 1.5 Million have advantage in the management and usage of supplied water.And also more than a half of focused cities have very serious problems in the production of supply water and the investment in the water supply industry of these cities lacks a lot.In all of 38 focused cities,22 cities' final score below 0.This implies Chinese focused cities don't have optimistic perspective.Beijing is ranked 32 among the evaluated cities,and it has the serious problems in the area of production of supply water,the investment in the water supply industry and water saving.Therefore,Beijing government should pay more attention to the water supply security.
Keywords:Water security  Urban water supply security  Index system  Comprehensive evaluation  Factor analysis
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