| 全球能源消费的空间差异及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾俊松,范英,吴晓华,孙德强.全球能源消费的空间差异及影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):796-805. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾俊松 范英 吴晓华 孙德强 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所能源与环境政策研究中心,北京,100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家杰出青年科学基金：“能源-环境-经济复杂系统中的预测理论方法与应用”（编号：70825001）；国家自然科学青年基金：“城市能源系统碳排放时空分异特征及其低碳调控机制研究”（编号： 41001383）；中国博士后科学基金特别项目：“全球能源消费及其碳排放时空分异特征与中国低碳调控机制研究”（编号： 201003158）；中国博士后科学基金面上项目：“全球能源消费监测及低碳化利用策略研究”（编号： 20090460533）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 选取全球主要国家和地区的能源系统为研究对象,对它们能源消费的规模、结构与效率在空间上的差异进行了分析,之后,采用递阶偏最小二乘(Hi_PLS)模型对能源消费量的主要影响因素进行了辨析,结果表明:①能源消费总量主要集中在北半球或北美、欧亚大陆及亚洲。人均能耗较高的国家则主要集中在油气资源丰富的区域或经济发达区;②结构方面,中东四国油气所占比例受其油气资源禀赋影响非常显著,它们除油气外的其它能耗几乎为0;③效率方面,能耗效率较高的国家主要分布在中南美、欧洲、欧亚大陆及亚太地区,而北美、中东和非洲地区的国家能耗效率则较低;④全球尺度,对能源消费量增长最重要的影响因素为交通业与信息产业的活动(包括基建),其次为医疗业及其它一般意义上的经济活动,最后就是人们投入研发以及从事农业等的活动。人口的自然增长及其结构因素与人们从事教育的活动对能源消费量增长的促进作用不大。据此,提出了一些减缓全球能源消耗,促进各国向低碳清洁的可持续发展模式转变的对策建议,供决策者参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消费 空间差异 递阶偏最小二乘 影响因素 全球 |
Spatial Differences and Influencing Factors of Global Energy Consumption |
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| JIA Junsong,FAN Ying,WU Xiaohua and SUN Deqiang.Spatial Differences and Influencing Factors of Global Energy Consumption[J].Resources Science,2011,33(5):796-805. |
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| Authors: | JIA Junsong FAN Ying WU Xiaohua and SUN Deqiang |
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| Institution: | Center for Energy & Environmental Policy, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Center for Energy & Environmental Policy, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Center for Energy & Environmental Policy, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Center for Energy & Environmental Policy, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China |
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| Abstract: | On a globe scale, different countries have varying energy consumption modes due to differences in geographical conditions and natural resources endowment. Discerning these differences can help design a reasonable system or strategic planning for energy conservation and emissions reduction. In this paper, 46 major countries (plus Hong Kong Special Admistrative Region of China) were selected. Then, the spatial distribution characteristics of energy consumption amount, structure, and efficiency were investigated and analyzed. Furthermore, influencing factors of these characteristics were examined in detail by introducing a new method. Data of consumption characteristics were obtained from the British Petroleum (BP). Data of influencing factors of these characteristics were obtain from the World Development Indicators (WDI) in the World Bank Database. The Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model (Hi_PLS) was used. One advantage of this model is to isolate the impact from collinearity in the independent variables. Results show that 1) energy consumption quantity is mainly concentrated in the northern part of the world, i.e., North America, Eurasia, and Asia. The per capita energy consumption, however, is mainly concentrated in countries with the endowment of high oil and gas resources or in economically developed areas. 2)The energy consumption structure of the Middle East 4 countries is significantly affected by their oil and gas resources endowment. Except for oil and gas, the other energy consumption of the Middle East 4 countries is almost zero. 3) Countries with high energy use efficiency are mainly distributed in Central & South America, Europe & Eurasia and Asia Pacific regions. However, countries in North America, the Middle East, and Africa have low energy use efficiency. 4) The most important influencing factors of energy consumption growth on a global scale are transportation and information industry activities (including infrastructure construction). The secondary influencing factors are medical industry activities and other economic activities. The tertiary influencing factors are R&D and agricultural activities. The promotion effect of energy consumption growth from these activities of population growth and its structure variation and the education industry is not marked, and then can be neglected. At last, measures of slowing global energy consumption and promoting different countries to transfer to a low carbon, clean and sustainable development mode were put forward. |
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| Keywords: | Energy consumption Spatial differences Hi_PLS Influencing factors |
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