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| 中国黄金制造业用金需求趋势预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 李鹏远,周平,唐金荣,陈其慎.中国黄金制造业用金需求趋势预测[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):1030-1037. |
| 作者姓名： | 李鹏远 周平 唐金荣 陈其慎 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学(北京),北京100083;中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京100037 2. 中国地质调查局发展研究中心,北京,100037 3. 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京,100037 |
| 基金项目： | 国土资源部地质调查局项目:"金对2020年、2025年和2030年国民经济建设保障程度论证与评价"(12120114025401),"中国战略性矿产安全评价与支持系统建设"(12120114052901),"矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究"(12120114093501)。 |
| 摘 要： | 自2002年中国的黄金市场开放以来,中国的黄金需求大幅增长,于2013年首次成为全球第一大黄金消费国。中国作为具有黄金消费传统习俗的国家,未来的黄金消费需求规模值得深入探讨。本文通过对亚洲、美洲和欧洲地区的黄金制造业黄金消费历史进行分析,得出人均黄金制造业黄金消费量与人均GDP之间并不呈"S"形规律,而是呈一种"倒U"形轨迹;黄金制造业黄金消费强度与人均GDP之间虽然也呈"倒U"形轨迹,但是并没有相近的消费顶点;人均黄金制造业黄金消费量与人均国民收入之间呈"倒U"形轨迹。通过研究日本、美国和欧洲的黄金制造业黄金消费规律并分别在日本模式、美国模式和欧洲模式下对中国的黄金制造业黄金消费量进行预测,预计未来中国的黄金制造业黄金消费量将介于日本模式1 371t与美国模式2 361t之间,为1 800t。 |
| 关 键 词： | 黄金 消费 预测 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 1/8/2015 12:00:00 AM |
China gold fabrication demand prediction |
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| LI Pengyuan , ZHOU Ping , TANG Jinrong , CHEN Qishen.China gold fabrication demand prediction[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):1030-1037. | |
| Authors: | LI Pengyuan ZHOU Ping TANG Jinrong CHEN Qishen |
| Institution: | China University of Geosciences Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;Development and Research Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China,Development and Research Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China,Development and Research Center, China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China and Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China |
| Abstract: | The gold market in China was opened in 2002 and since then gold consumer demand has increased significantly. China overtook India to become the biggest buyer of gold in the world in 2013. Here, we analyzed gold fabrication consumer demand history in Asian countries such as China and India, the US, and European countries such as England, France, Spain and Germany. We found that per capita gold fabrication consumer demand and per capita GDP did not form an S-type rule, but formed an inverted U-type track. Gold fabrication consumption intensity and per capita GDP form an inverted-U type track, but they did not form a similar consumption peak. Per capita fabrication consumer demand for gold and per capita GNI also form an inverted-U type track. We analyzed gold fabrication consumption rules for Japan, the US, England, France, Spain and Germany and predict gold fabrication consumer demand in China based on Japanese, American and European models. We conclude that China gold fabrication consumer demand will lie between the Japanese model 1 371t and American model 2 361t, it is 1 800t. |
| Keywords: | gold consumption forecast China |
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