| 黄河上游流域气候变化对径流的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐芳芳,徐宗学,左德鹏.黄河上游流域气候变化对径流的影响[J].资源科学,2012,34(6):1079-1088. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐芳芳 徐宗学 左德鹏 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京,100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国-欧盟流域管理项目:“气候变化对黄河流域的影响研究:第二阶段细节分析及适应性对策的综合”。 |
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| 摘 要： | 黄河上游是我国重要的水源涵养区。然而,近年来黄河上游年平均气温呈逐年上升趋势,对流域水资源情势造成较大影响。本文基于SWAT模型,研究在未来不同气候情景下,流域径流在未来两个时期（2046年-2065年以及2081年-2100年）的时空分布规律。结果表明,在未来两个时期内,流域径流量呈减少趋势,且2081年-2100年时期的减少幅度较2046年-2065年时期大;流域多年平均径流量、年径流量序列的第10和90百分位值（R10和R90）的最大值与最小值分别出现在CSIRO-A2和INM-B1两种组合情景下;CSIRO模式下流域径流量最大,INM模式下最小,MRI模式居中;日径流量的第90百分位值（Q90）在所有组合情景下都表现出减小的趋势。在不同气候变化情景下,流域未来多年平均径流深的空间分布与基准期较为一致,即上游径流深较大,下游径流深较小;在不同情景下流域多年平均径流深要低于基准期。研究结果可以为黄河流域水资源管理和相关政策的制定提供科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 黄河 SWAT模型 情景 径流 |
Response of Runoff to Climate Change in the Upper Yellow River Basin |
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| TANG Fangfang,XU Zongxue and ZUO Depeng.Response of Runoff to Climate Change in the Upper Yellow River Basin[J].Resources Science,2012,34(6):1079-1088. |
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| Authors: | TANG Fangfang XU Zongxue and ZUO Depeng |
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| Institution: | Key laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Key laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;Key laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China |
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| Abstract: | The Upper Yellow River Basin(UYRB)is an important water conservation area.However,the increasing annual mean temperature exerts great impacts on the water resources here.In this study,Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)was selected to set up a hydrological model in the UYRB and model calibration and validation were performed.Besides,the correlation coefficient(R2)and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient(NS)were used to assess the goodness of fit between the observed and the simulated data.The results indicate that R2 was 0.773 and NS was 0.667 in calibration period(1971-1985),while R2 was 0.709 and NS was 0.626 in validation period(1986-2000).Then daily precipitation,maximum and minimum air temperature data series at each station,generated by the Statistical Downscaling Method(SDSM),were inputted to drive the SWAT model to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of runoff during the future periods(2046-2065 and 2081-2100)under three climate scenarios including CSIRO,INM and MRI.Two emission scenarios(SRES A2 and SRES B1)were also included.The results show that runoff during the periods of 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 has a decreasing trend compared with that in the baseline period,with the decreasing margin in 2046-2065 greater than that in 2081-2100;the maximum values for annual mean runoff,R10 and R90 under climate change scenarios downscaled from CSIRO are obviously greater than that under INM,with the runoff driven by MRI in between.The maximum and minimum of annual mean runoff,R10 and R90 would appear under the combined scenarios of CSIRO-A2 and INM-B1 respectively.In both of the future periods,the results generally show decreasing trends for Q10 under most of the climate change scenarios(except the combined scenarios of INM-A2 and MRI-B1),while exhibite decreasing trends for Q90 under all climate change scenarios.In CSIRO,MRI and INM downscaling climate change scenarios,spatial distribution of the average mean runoff for two future periods is more consistent with the baseline period,i.e.the runoff is large in the upstream area but small in downstream area;while the annual mean runoff in all climate change scenarios is smaller than that in the baseline period.This study could provide a scientific basis for the management of water resources and policy-making in the Yellow River basin. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Yellow River SWAT model Scenario Runoff |
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