| 未来气候变化对中国东北地区水热条件影响的数值模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴金栋、王石立,张建敏.未来气候变化对中国东北地区水热条件影响的数值模拟研究[J].资源科学,2000,22(6):36-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴金栋、王石立 张建敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081
2. 国家气候中心，北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”攻关重中之重项目“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”(96-908-03-01)课题资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合DKRZ OPYC模式在中国东北地区的模拟试验结果，利用随机天气模式WGEN对该地区未来水热条件的可能变化进行数值模拟，由此可以克服以基准气候下建立的线性统计关系，通过大尺度平均气候要素研究气候资源变化的不足。文中不仅给出了农业气候资源基本特征量的变化，如作物生长季、≥0℃有效积温和不同时间尺度的平均降水量等，而且详细分析了2×CO2气候情景下，该地区极端气候要素值的可能变化，如生长秀内极端平均最高气温、冷害低温如日、≥30℃高温日、≥50mm暴雨日和日最大降水量等。文中还针对不同作物类型，以作物需水量和缺水量，模拟了未来气候条件下，该地区主要农作物春小麦、春玉米和一季稻水热条件匹配状况的可能变化。结果表明，未来增温有利于改善东北地区当前的热量条件，减轻低温冷害的危害；降水量增加有利于改善干旱地区作物的供水条件，提高作物产量。但是由于降水的增加不足以补偿增温引起蒸发蒸腾的增强，东北地区主要作物生长发育期间水分普遍不足，在没有灌溉条件的地区，农业产量将受到影响。另外，平均气候变化以后，气候极端值的变化将更加剧烈，因此，异常天气灾害对农业的危害程度有可能增加。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水热 随机天气模式 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588(2000)06-0036-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年10月19 |
A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER AND THERMAL RESOURCES IN NORTHEAST CHINA |
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| WU Jin-dong,WANG Shi-li,ZHANG Jian-min.A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER AND THERMAL RESOURCES IN NORTHEAST CHINA[J].Resources Science,2000,22(6):36-42. |
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| Authors: | WU Jin-dong WANG Shi-li ZHANG Jian-min |
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| Abstract: | Based on the output of a general circulation model, DKRZ OPYC, a stochastic weather generator WGEN was adopted to simulate the possible change of water and thermal resources in Northeast China. Therefore, the shortages of using linear statistic models and climatic averages with lower resolutions in the light of climate base were avoided in the study of the impacts of climate change on climate resources. The basic features of agroclimatic resources were described according to the experiment of WGEN, such as crop growing season, active accumulated temperature above 0℃, effective accumulated temperature above 10℃ and mean precipitation at different temporal scales, etc. Especially, possible variations of extreme climate factors in the growing season were evaluated in detail, such as maximum temperature, initial date with low temperature, the number of days with higher temperature above 30℃, the number of days with daily rainfall over 50mm and maximum daily precipitation. etc. Water requirement and deficit of the main staple crops (spring wheat, spring maize, middle season rice) in Northeast China were simulated to show the matching status of water and thermal resources under present and future climate.
The results indicated that thermal resources will be abundant due to rising temperature and chill injury will be alleviated under 2×CO2 climate. Although the rainfall amount will increase under rising temperature conditions, which will provide improved moisture for crop growing and yield forming, water requirement and deficit of main staple crops in Northeast China will still expand as a result of enhancned evaporation and transpiration. Thus, agricultural production will be affected in non-irrigated areas. Moreover, extreme climatic factors will be in he more acute variation as climate averages change, which adds to the possibility of adverse impacts of abnormal weather events on crop growth and development. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Water and thermal resources Stochastic weather generator |
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