| 长江上游流域径流变化与分布式水文模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 夏军,王渺林.长江上游流域径流变化与分布式水文模拟[J].资源科学,2008,30(7):962-967. |
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| 作者姓名： | 夏军 王渺林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京,100101
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京,100101;长江水利委员会水文局长江上游水文水资源勘测局,重庆400014;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究长江洪水和水资源问题，对于长江流域的可持续发展极为重要。本文以长江上游流域16个主要控制站径流观测数据为基础，对长江上游流域径流变化及其影响原因进行分析。结果表明，除金沙江流域径流微弱增加外，其他流域径流都有一定程度的减少趋势，其中岷江流域高场、横江流域横江、沱江流域李家湾、嘉陵江流域小河坝、武胜、北碚等站的径流显著减少，长江上游干流控制站寸滩站径流则微弱减少。针对流域气候变化与人类活动对水资源量的变化影响，建立大尺度分布式月水量平衡模型，将模型应用于长江上游的7个区间，模拟结果表明模型精度较高。最后应用分布式月水量平衡模型定量识别气候变化及人类活动对流域径流变化的贡献率，长江上游寸滩站径流减少，气候变化是主要影响因素，贡献率为71.43%；而岷江和嘉陵江流域的径流减小，人类活动贡献率大约占到一半。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流变化 气候变化 人类活动 分布式水文模型 长江上游 长江上游 上游流域 径流变化 分布式 水文模拟 Yangtze River Upper Simulation Distributed Changes 岷江 影响因素 贡献率 定量识别 精度 模拟结果 区间 应用 月水量平衡模型 大尺度 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/3/2008 12:00:00 AM |
Runoff Changes and Distributed Hydrologic Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River |
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| XIA Jun and WANG Miao-lin.Runoff Changes and Distributed Hydrologic Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River[J].Resources Science,2008,30(7):962-967. |
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| Authors: | XIA Jun and WANG Miao-lin |
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| Abstract: | The Yangtze river from the source regions to the Yichang station is called as the Upper Yangtze River. Its area is about one million square kilometers. The main tributaries of the upper Yangtze River include the Jinsha River, Minjiang River, Tuojiang River, Jialing River and Wujiang River etc. It is desirable to study the variations of runoff at the major stations along the main stream and the major tributaries of the upper Yangtze River basin, and explore the possible causes of the variations. The runoff changes at sixteen main control stations in the upper reaches of Yangtze River basin were analyzed firstly. The results show that except in the Jinsha River basin, the runoff in the other basin decreased more or less. Among them, the runoff in the Minjiang River, Hengjiang River, Tuojiang River, and Jialing River decreased significantly. The runoff at the Cuntan station increased before 1968, and decreased significantly after 1993. According to water resources engineering and hydrologic station distribution, the upper Yangtze River basin was divided into seven areas: 1)Jinsha River basin; 2)Minjiang River basin; 3) Tuojiang River basin; 4)Jialing River basin; 5)Cuntan area; 6)Wujiang River basin; 7)Yichang area. Then a large scale distributed monthly water balance model was developed and applied in the above seven areas. In the calibration period, the average value of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 85.00% and that in the verification period is 81.69%. So the model can simulate monthly runoff well in the upper Yangtze River basin. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on the changes of runoff generation in the upper Yangtze River basin. Using the fixing-changing factor technique, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities on runoff change were evaluated. The runoff at the Cuntan station of Yangtze River decreased significantly since 1993 and climate change is the main factor that the contribution rate of which was 71.43%. But in the non-flood period the reservoirs operation in the upper Yangtze River basin increased runoff somewhat. Meanwhile, it need to be paid attention to that the runoff in the Minjiang and Jialing River basin decreased obviously and the contribution of human activities to runoff change reaches to about a half. Human activities have most probably played a dominant role in influencing the discharge of the Minjiang and Jialing River basin. |
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| Keywords: | Runoff change Climate change Human activities Distributed monthly water balance model The Upper Yangtze River |
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