| 广东省能源消费碳排放增长的结构分解分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋佩珊,计军平,马晓明.广东省能源消费碳排放增长的结构分解分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):551-558. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋佩珊 计军平 马晓明 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院,深圳,518055 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以广东省1997年、2002年、2007年可比价投入产出表以及历年能源消费资料为基础数据,从碳排放系数、能源消费结构、能源消费强度、中间投入结构、最终需求结构以及最终需求规模等6个因素对1997年-2007年广东省能源消费碳排放增长进行了结构分解分析。结果表明：①1997年-2007年广东省能源消费碳排放总量增加了204.50Mt-CO2,其中,最终需求规模扩张对碳排放增量的贡献率为182.8%,相反,能源消费强度的变化使碳排放减少了41.9%,其余4个因素的变化使碳排放减少了40.9%;②最终需求规模是引起各部门隐含排放增长的主要驱动力,但是在其他因素的共同影响下,半数部门因其产品需求而引起的隐含排放在1997年-2007年间并没有明显的增长。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳排放 能源消费 SDA分解 广东 |
| 修稿时间： | 1/2/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Structural Decomposition Analysis on the Growth of Carbon Emission From Energy Consumption in Guangdong |
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| SONG Peishan,JI Junping and MA Xiaoming.Structural Decomposition Analysis on the Growth of Carbon Emission From Energy Consumption in Guangdong[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):551-558. |
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| Authors: | SONG Peishan JI Junping and MA Xiaoming |
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| Institution: | School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China;School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China;School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China |
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| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation has become an essential task since the 1997"Kyoto Protocol". Therefore, the primary key factors that affect CO 2 emission must be identified to design efficient CO 2 mitigation measures for the future. This study seeks to understand the changes in the factors that influence Guangdong’s CO 2 emissions from energy consumption by decomposing overall emissions into a number of key determinants over a period of almost 10 years. In particular, based on input-output tables on comparable price and energy consumption data for each sector, this paper has made use of input-output structural decomposition analysis(SDA) to identify the key factors that affect the changes of CO 2 emissions from Guangdong’s energy consumption during 1997-2007. SDA makes it possible to investigate inter-relationships as well as intra-relationships among sectors of the economy and levels of consumption. An important facet of this method is the micro-level breakdown of economic structure and energy use. Finally, 40 sectors were got by the subdivision. They are most responsible for CO 2 emissions’growth, so we can focus on them to seek ways to reduce the emissions. In this study, changes in CO 2 emission were decomposed from six factors: CO 2 Emission Coefficient, Energy Consumption Intensity, Energy Consumption Structure, Intermediate Input Structure, Final Demand Structure and Total Final Demand. The empirical results indicate that: 1) the total carbon emissions from energy consumption in Guangdong increased by 204.50Mt-CO 2 from 1997 to 2007. During this period, Total Final Demand made the emissions increase by 182.8% while Energy Consumption Intensity made the emissions decline by 41.9% . Besides, the decrease rate of CO 2 emissions by CO 2 Emission Coefficient, Energy Consumption Structure, Intermediate Input Structure and Final Demand Structure are 11.6%, 1.5%, 11.3% and 16.6% respectively; 2) the growth of each sector’s implied carbon emissions was mainly caused by the effect of Total Final Demand during 1997-2007, but under the joint influence of other factors, almost 20 sectors got a tiny increment in implied emissions because of their products requirement. |
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| Keywords: | Carbon emission Energy consumption Structural decomposition analysis Guangdong |
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