| 甘肃省能源消费碳足迹变化及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 焦文献,陈兴鹏,贾卓.甘肃省能源消费碳足迹变化及影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):559-565. |
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| 作者姓名： | 焦文献 陈兴鹏 贾卓 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州,730040 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号：40871061)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 能源消费是人类活动影响全球气候变化的主要行为之一,对能源消费导致的碳足迹进行研究具有重要意义。本文首先应用能源消费碳足迹的相关概念和方法,计算得到了甘肃省1990年-2009年的总碳足迹、各能源消费类型的碳足迹、碳足迹产值和碳足迹生态压力;然后利用STIRPAT模型进行岭回归函数拟合,探讨了经济增长与碳足迹之间的定量关系,并验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性;最后通过脱钩指数分析进一步研究了经济增长与碳足迹之间的动态变化关系。结果表明：碳足迹从1990年的0.091hm2/人上升为2009年的0.191hm2/人,呈现波动上升的趋势。各能源消费类型的碳足迹构成中,煤和石油占据了绝对地位,其中又以煤所占比重最大,石油次之,天然气所起的作用甚微。碳足迹产值由1990年的1.18万元/hm2增加为2009年的2.51万元/hm2,碳足迹生态压力也从1990年的0.10上升至2009年的0.24。人口和人均GDP是驱动碳足迹增长的主要因素,且回归分析和脱钩指数分析都表明经济增长与碳足迹之间存在环境库兹涅茨曲线。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消费 碳足迹 STIRPAT模型 环境库兹涅茨曲线 脱钩指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/4/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Carbon Footprint Change of Energy Consumption in Gansu Province and Its Influencing Factors |
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| JIAO Wenxian,CHEN Xingpeng and JIA Zhuo.Carbon Footprint Change of Energy Consumption in Gansu Province and Its Influencing Factors[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):559-565. |
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| Authors: | JIAO Wenxian CHEN Xingpeng and JIA Zhuo |
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| Institution: | College of Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730040, China;College of Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730040, China;College of Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730040, China |
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| Abstract: | Energy consumption is one of the main human activities that affect global climate change, and therefore research on carbon footprint of energy consumption has great significance. In this paper, firstly, concepts and methods relating to carbon footprint of energy consumption were used to calculate the total carbon footprint, carbon footprint of each type of energy, output value of the carbon footprint and its ecological pressure from 1990 to 2009 in Gansu Province. Then, ridge regression function for STIRPAT model was applied to study the quantitative relationship between carbon footprint and economic growth and at the same time verify the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Finally, the decoupling index was introduced to further explore the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon footprint. The results show that: 1) The total carbon footprint has increased from 0.091 hm2 per capita in 1990 to 0.191 hm2 per capita in 2009, presenting a fluctuated rising trend; 2) For carbon footprint composition of each type of energy consumptions, coal and oil occupy the dominant position while natural gas is of little effect; 3) Output value of carbon footprint has increased from 11,800 RMB per hm2 in 1990 to 25,100 RMB per hm2 in 2009, with an average annual growth rate of 4.1%. This means that economic growth of Gansu depends much on fossil energy such as coal, oil and so on; 4) Ecological pressure intensity of carbon footprint has increased to 0.24 in 2009 and is much lower than that in developed regions such as Jiangsu and Shanghai. This is mainly due to the vast area of woodland in Gansu, which reaches up to 46% of the total land area. Development of low-carbon economy is still confronted with many problems, such as limited energy, fragile ecological environment and irrational energy structure. The growth of population and GDP per capita are the two main factors that drive the increase of carbon footprint, and the environmental impact of population is 3.47 times of that of GDP per capita under the same condition. Both regression analysis and decoupling index analysis have proved the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve between economic growth and carbon footprint but it needs 33 years to achieve the inflection point. |
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| Keywords: | Energy consumption Carbon footprint STIRPAT model Environmental Kuznets Curve Decoupling index |
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