| 开都河流域径流对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 张一驰,李宝林,程维明,张学仁.开都河流域径流对气候变化的响应[J].资源科学,2004,26(6):69-76. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张一驰 李宝林 程维明 张学仁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京,100101
2. 新疆塔里木河流域管理局科研信息所,库尔勒,841000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，中国科学院知识创新工程项目，世界银行资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 开都河属塔里木河的源流之一,随着塔里木河流域近期综合治理的深入进行,开都河径流变化对气候的响应关系已逐渐成为国内外科学家关注的热点问题之一.鉴于此目的,该文采用经典的Mann-Kendall和Mann-Whitney检验方法,利用该流域巴音布鲁克气象站和大山口水文站1958～2002年的实测资料,分析对比了气温、降雨和径流序列变化特征.结果表明:除春季外,其他季节的年径流基本表现为1958～1973年偏丰、1974年～1986年偏枯和1987年～2000年偏丰,并在1987年～2000年间表现为显著上升的趋势;年平均气温经历了高-低-高三阶段,其中夏季气温总体呈上升趋势;降雨的空间差异性明显,上游年降雨量1973后跳变减少,其中夏季降雨量于1977年～1988年间为多年最小值;中游夏季降雨量1987年后跳变增加.以径流自身的特征变化为时段划分基础,对比了径流、降雨和气温变化过程,研究表明:夏季年际降雨与气温变化是引起夏、秋、冬季径流变化的根本原因;其中年降雨变化对径流变化起主导作用,夏季气温变化导致的冰川融水变化对径流具有一定调节作用,70年代～80年代冰川融水减少使径流减少幅度大于降水减少幅度,而90年代冰川融水增加使径流增加幅度大于降水增加幅度.
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| 关 键 词： | 开都河 径流变化 气候变化 响应 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588(2004)06-0069-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年8月20日 |
Hydrological Response of Runoff to Climate Variation in Kaidu Catchment |
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| ZHANG Yi-chi,LI Bao-lin,CHENG Wei-ming,ZHANG Xue-ren,ZHANG Yi-chi,LI Bao-lin,CHENG Wei-ming,ZHANG Xue-ren.Hydrological Response of Runoff to Climate Variation in Kaidu Catchment[J].Resources Science,2004,26(6):69-76. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yi-chi LI Bao-lin CHENG Wei-ming ZHANG Xue-ren ZHANG Yi-chi LI Bao-lin CHENG Wei-ming ZHANG Xue-ren |
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| Abstract: | With recent comprehensive investigation of TaLimu river, the response of runoff to climate variation of KaiDu river, an important source of TaLimu river, has been a research focus for many scientists. Because a few human activities happened in KaiDu catchment, the variation of runoff is mainly caused by climate change, especially in yearly and seasonal temporal scale. KaiDu catchment is located in the middle of TianShan mountain in XinJiang municipality and has only one meteorological station and one hydrological station within the range of 19012km2. On the large spatial-temporal scale or in the case of data absence, researchers often divide runoff, precipitation and temperature series per ten years into several periods, then acquire the rule of runoff response to climate though comparing the changes of natural elements between difference periods. Obviously, it is impossible for natural elements to take substaintial changes every ten years, it is reasonable to partition the periods of series according to the varition feature of natural elements. In this paper, Mann-Kendall test and Mann-Whitney test is applied to detection the monotonic trends and step trends of yearly and seasonal runoff, precipitation and temperature series from 1958 to 2000 and take the changes point of trends feature as the boundary of periods.The analysis result show that spring runoff is stable in past 45a, other seasonal runoff and yearly runoff are much smaller during 1974 and 1986 than other periods and show significant monotonic increasing trends after 1987. Yearly average temperature during 1975 and 1988 is lower than other periods and average temperature in summer take step increase after 1977. Precipitation show great spatial differences: upstream area has more precipitation than middle-stream area, yearly precipitation decreased after 1973 and aestival precipitation during 1977 and 1988 is fewer than other periods in upstream area, both yearly and aestival precipitation of middle-stream area increased after 1987. By comparing the variation of runoff, precipitation and temperature on the base of runoff periods partition, it is found that climate variation in summer is key reason for runoff change in summer, autumn and winter, precipitation directly influences the runoff but temperature does it through glacier wastage, precipitation has more weight than temperature in influencing runoff change. The reduction of glacier wastage during 1974 and 1986 make the decrease percentage of runoff greater than precipitation, and the augment of glacier wastage during 1986 and 2000 make the increase percentage of runoff greater than precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | Kaidu river Runoff change Climate variation Response |
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