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| 基于均一性检验的1961年至2006年四川省日照变化规律研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 李金建,秦宁生,孙善磊,钟燕川,周天华.基于均一性检验的1961年至2006年四川省日照变化规律研究[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):1002-1009. |
| 作者姓名： | 李金建 秦宁生 孙善磊 钟燕川 周天华 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都,610072;四川省农业气象中心,成都,610072 2. 南京信息工程大学,气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京,210044 3. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都,610072 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（编号：41075066）；中国气象局成都高原气象研究所基本业务专项项目：“基于气候代用资料的青藏高原历史气候变化”；中国气象局气候变化专项（编号：ccfs-09-19）。 |
| 摘 要： | 利用标准正态检验法(SNHT),对四川省117个站点1961年-2006年日照时数观测资料进行均一性检验,得到54个均一站点,并在此基础上通过统计方法初步分析了近46a四川省日照时数变化规律,得到以下几点初步认识:四川省88.9%的站点年日照时数呈减少趋势,且盆地减少幅度大于高原;各季日照时数变化以夏季呈减少趋势的站点范围最广、减幅最大,冬季次之,而春季表现为增加的站点范围最大;20世纪60年代、70年代日照时数偏多,80年代以来,日照时数持续偏少;有明显的突变现象,突变点在1980年附近;日照周期变化显著,"暗亮"交替现象明显,年代际及年际尺度的主要周期分别为24a、6a以及3a。 |
| 关 键 词： | 日照时数 均一性 小波分析 气候倾向率 四川省 |
| 收稿时间： | 8/6/2010 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 3/1/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Analysis of Variation in Sunshine Duration in Sichuan Province Based on the Homogeneity Test |
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| LI Jinjian,QING Ningsheng,SUN Shanlei,ZHONG Yanchuan and ZHOU Tianhua.Analysis of Variation in Sunshine Duration in Sichuan Province Based on the Homogeneity Test[J].Resources Science,2011,33(5):1002-1009. | |
| Authors: | LI Jinjian QING Ningsheng SUN Shanlei ZHONG Yanchuan and ZHOU Tianhua |
| Institution: | Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China; Agrometeorological Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China; Agrometeorological Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China;Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China |
| Abstract: | Non-homogeneity of climate data could lead to considerable uncertainty in relevant research. In this paper, changing rules of sunshine duration in Sichuan Province were analyzed using homogeneous data. Annual sunshine data at 117 stations in Sichuan Province were collected for performing the homogeneity test using the traditional standard normal homogeneity (SNHT) method. Results showed that 54 of 117 stations have homogeneous data. Based on sunshine duration observations from the 54 stations, characteristics of changes in sunshine duration were analyzed using traditional statistical methods, e.g., linear trend, wavelet analysis, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), and Mann-Kendall test. Some conclusions were drawn as follows: 1) 88.9% of the stations being used showed decreasing trends, with relatively large reduction rates occurring in the basin and the average decreasing rate of 50.94h/10a. 2) The largest decrease of seasonal sunshine duration occurred in summer, followed by winter. However, most of stations showed an increasing tendency in spring. 3) Changing trends in the inter-decadal sunshine duration were similar. From the 1960s to the 1970s, the sunshine duration increased slightly in most areas of Sichuan. In the 1980s and 1990s, it started to decline. Since the early 21st century, it exhibited a slight increase. As a whole, the sunshine duration in Sichuan from the 1960s to the 1970s showed positive anomalies, and the other periods mainly displayed negative anomalies. Meanwhile, the highest sunshine duration was found to take place in the 1970s, and the lowest one occurred in the 1990s. 4) Based on the Mann-Kendall test, t-test, and Yamamoto test, the sunshine duration showed varying mutations, with the point of discontinuity appearing in about 1980. 5) There was a marked transformation of sunshine between dimming and brightness periods. An inter-decadal variation scale of about 24 years was detected. However, it was noticed that the inter-decadal signal began weakening since the mid-1990s. The annual oscillation cycle mainly showed 6 years and 3 years, in which the 3-year cycle signal weakened in periods of the mid-1970s and the 1980s. In addition, a tendency of change over a 4-year cycle occurred since the early of 21st century. |
| Keywords: | Sunshine duration Homogeneity Wavelet analysis Linear trend |
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