| 人类活动和气候变化对石羊河流域水资源的影响——基于主客观综合赋权分析法 |
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| 引用本文： | 张彧瑞,马金珠,齐识.人类活动和气候变化对石羊河流域水资源的影响——基于主客观综合赋权分析法[J].资源科学,2012,34(10):1922-1928. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张彧瑞 马金珠 齐识 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部“973”项目(编号:2009CB421306);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40872161)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 人类活动和气候变化对水资源的影响已为众多科学家关注。二者的影响谁起主导作用,贡献率究竟有多大,这是本文研究的重点。本文采用基于＂功能驱动＂原理的主观赋权法和基于＂差异驱动＂原理的客观赋权法,计算出了人类活动和气候变化对水资源影响的贡献率,最终采用综合集成赋权法计算了二者的权重系数。结果表明：①气候变化和人类活动对石羊河流域水资源的影响权重系数分别为52.63%和47.36%,这表明气候变化因子对水资源的影响要大于人类活动因子对水资源的影响;②气候变化对水资源的影响在流域内部存在差异,其主要表现在：中游地区的气候因子对水资源的贡献率最大,是区域内水资源对气候变化最真实的反映;上游地区由于积雪的消融和积累过程使得气候因子的贡献率较小;下游地区受降水效率和可供蒸发水量的限制贡献率也较小。
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| 关 键 词： | 石羊河流域 气候变化因子 人类活动因子 G1赋权法 熵权法 综合赋值法 |
Human Activities, Climate Change and Water Resources in the Shiyang Basin |
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| ZHANG Yurui,MA Jinzhu and QI Shi.Human Activities, Climate Change and Water Resources in the Shiyang Basin[J].Resources Science,2012,34(10):1922-1928. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yurui MA Jinzhu and QI Shi |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | Water resources are essential to the development of regional economies and to maintain the livelihoods of local peoples. Water resources affect, and sometime even decide, ecological and landscape patterns, especially in semi-arid and arid areas. The influence of human activity and climate change on water resources is of growing interest; however, how to measure the degree to which these two factors influence water resources remains a challenge. The quantitative and qualitative changes in water resources involve complicated hydrological processes, made more difficult by stochastic processes and various uncertainties. Here we use data from principle components and correlation analyses, population, GDP, number of livestock, temperature and precipitation. The contribution of climate change and human activity on water resources are calculated based on the theory of subjective and objective weighting. Our results show that for the Shiyang Basin, the comprehensive weight coefficients for human disturbance and climate fluctuations are 52.63% and 47.36%, respectively. The influence of climate change on water resources is more significant than the effect of human activity. Amongst changes to the climate, the impact of precipitation was more important than temperature. For human disturbances, the weighting of population is obvious and as high as 30.17%. The next important factor is the number of livestock; GDP had the smallest effect on water resources. The impact of climate change on water resources shows spatial variability by the contrast of the weight coefficient: in middle reaches of the basin climate changes have more influence on water resources than other areas. In upper streams the impact of climate changes on water resources is small as a result of snow accumulation and melting. In lower areas of the basin, rainfall effects and available water impose restrictions on evaporation and changes in climate have a small effect on water resources. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Human activities G1 weighting method Entropy method Shiyang Basin Combination weighting method |
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