| 天山南北坡气象因子对出山口径流影响通径分析—以开都河和玛纳斯河流域为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李雪梅,张飞云,尚明,吉力力·阿不都外力,李兰海.天山南北坡气象因子对出山口径流影响通径分析—以开都河和玛纳斯河流域为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(4):652-659. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李雪梅 张飞云 尚明 吉力力·阿不都外力 李兰海 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011／中国科学院研究生院,北京100049／中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆水循环与水利用自治区重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011
2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011／中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆水循环与水利用自治区重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-334, KZCX2-YW-GJ04) ;国家重点基础研究发展计划:"全球典型干旱半干旱地区年代尺度气候变化机理及其影响研究"(编号:2012CB956204). |
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| 摘 要： | 基于开都河和玛纳斯河流域1950年代末以来的气象和水文资料,本文应用趋势分析、相关分析和通径分析等方法对比分析了近50年积温（〉0℃）、降水量和径流深在年和季节尺度上的变化趋势以及日积温和降水对出山口日径流深的直接和间接影响。分析表明近50年玛纳斯河流域仅年积温和秋季积温显著增加,而开都河流域除冬季外其他季节积温和年积温均呈现显著增加趋势。除开都河流域冬季降水量有显著的增加趋势外,两流域年降水量和其他季节降水量变化均不显著。两流域出山口年径流深增加趋势显著。相关分析和通径分析显示两流域日积温和日降水对出山口年、春季、夏季和秋季日径流深均有极显著直接影响。两流域日积温对年、春季和秋季日径流深的直接影响大于日降水。积温和降水是出山口径流产生的重要驱动因子,但积温的驱动能力要大于降水的驱动能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 积温 径流深 通径分析 玛纳斯河流域 开都河流域 |
| 修稿时间： | 3/2/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Path Analysis on Impacts of Meterological Factors on Runoff from Tianshan Mountains:A Case Study on Manas River and Kaidu River Watersheds |
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| LI Xuemei,ZHANG Feiyun,SHANG Ming,JI lili Abduweli and LI Lanhai.Path Analysis on Impacts of Meterological Factors on Runoff from Tianshan Mountains:A Case Study on Manas River and Kaidu River Watersheds[J].Resources Science,2012,34(4):652-659. |
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| Authors: | LI Xuemei ZHANG Feiyun SHANG Ming JI lili Abduweli and LI Lanhai |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zones, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zones, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zones, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zones, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zones, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China |
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| Abstract: | The correlation coefficients between independent variables and dependent variables can reflect the impact of the former on the latter. However, the direct and indirect impacts of independent variables cannot be reflected by the correlation coefficients because multiple paths from the independent variables to the dependent variables might exist. The path analysis derived from correlation analysis provides an approach to evaluate both direct and indirect impacts. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of Manas River and Kaidu River watersheds since late 1950, this paper has analyzed the variation trends of accumulated temperature (AT), accumulated precipitation (AP) and accumulated runoff depth (ARD, on both annual and seasonal scales). Both direct and indirect impacts of daily accumulated temperature (DAT) and precipitation (DAP) on daily runoff depth (DRD) were also investigated by using the path analysis. The results show that there are significant increases in annual accumulated temperature (AAT) and annual accumulated runoff depth (AARD) in both watersheds, but no significant changes in annual accumulated precipitation (AAP). In the Kaidu River watershed, the seasonal accumulated temperature (SAT) increases markedly in all seasons except winter, but in the Manas River watershed it increases markedly only in autumn. The seasonal accumulated precipitation (SAP) in the Kaidu River watershed has a tendency to increase remarkably only in winter. The seasonal accumulated runoff depth (SARD) in the Kaidu River watershed in spring is much larger than that in the Manas River watershed. In the summer and winter, the Manas River watershed shows significant increase in SARD while the Kaidu River watershed only does so in winter. Correlation and path analyses show that DAT and DAP have remarkable direct impacts on DRD in all seasons except winter. The direct effect of DAT on DRD in the Manas River watershed is significantly larger than that of DAP on DRD, but it is reverse in the Kaidu River watershed. DAT is more important than precipitation as the driving factor for daily runoff generation bacause of the critical impact of temperature on snow/glacier-melting. Other factors may include topography, vegetation cover, soil and human activities. |
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| Keywords: | Accumulated temperature Runoff depth Path analysis Manas River watershed Kaidu River watershed |
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