| 基于系统动力学的青海省可持续发展评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 李杰兰,陈兴鹏,王 雨,张子龙.基于系统动力学的青海省可持续发展评价[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1624-1631. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李杰兰 陈兴鹏 王 雨 张子龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州,730000
2. 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州,730000;兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，1980s以来汉藏回民族地区人地关系演变过程的时空比较研究-以甘肃定西、甘南、临夏为例项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文立足于生态经济理论,利用系统动力学模型方法和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,构建青海省"资源-环境-经济系统"结构模型,表明经济增长、资源枯竭和环境影响之间的反馈关系.包括8个子系统:生产子系统,人口子系统,人力资本子系统,人造资本子系统,不可更新资源子系统,可更新自然资源子系统,技术子系统,环境污染子系统.采用系统动力学专用模拟分析软件VENSIM PLE5.4模拟青海省"资源-环境-经济系统"可能的运行情景,时青海省"资源-环境-经济系统"运行规律进行探索,旨在揭示青海省不同发展模式下的环境响应,为青海省的可持续发展决策提供参考,也为环境友好型社会建设提供理论依据.结果表明:青海省经济发展时自然资源的依赖性强,可持续发展难以实现;技术对经济增长的贡献十分突出,对自然资源表现出弱可替代性;青海省应当转变经济发展模式,发展循环经济;国家投资是青海省环境友好型建设的重要保障.
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| 关 键 词： | 生态经济 系统动力学 资源-环境-经济系统 青海省 |
| 修稿时间： | 6/8/2009 12:00:00 AM |
Research on the Sustainable Development in Qinghai
Province based on System Dynamics
Research on the Sustainable Development in Qinghai Province based on System Dynamics |
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| LI Jielan,CHEN Xingpeng,WANG Yu and ZHANG Zilong.Research on the Sustainable Development in Qinghai
Province based on System Dynamics
Research on the Sustainable Development in Qinghai Province based on System Dynamics[J].Resources Science,2009,31(9):1624-1631. |
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| Authors: | LI Jielan CHEN Xingpeng WANG Yu and ZHANG Zilong |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a simulation model is constructed to illustrate the feedback relations between economic growth, resource depletion and environmental impact based on system dynamics (SD), ecological economics and Cobb-Douglas production function. It also reflects the feedback relations between production and factors of production, limited availability of natural resources, and the limits on the consumption scale of those resources. The core modeling in this paper is Cobb-Douglas production function. Manufactured capital, renewable natural capital, nonrenewable natural capital, and human capital are the production factors in Cobb-Douglas production function. Technology used in the production sets the overall level of efficiency in production. Eight sub-systems together determine possible scenarios of the Resources-Environmental-Economic System by interacting with and feeding back to each other. There are six variables in Cobb-Douglas production function corresponding to the six sub-systems respectively. They are production, technology, human capital, manufactured capital, renewable natural resource input and un-renewable natural resource input. In addition to the six sub-systems, there are two other sub-systems in parallel, which are population and environment. By adjusting parameters within the model and changing the specification of some variables, the isolated effect of resource depletion, technological development, or other factors on per-capita production scale can be revealed. The results of the modeling can offer some constructional advices for the sustainable development in Qinghai Province. The objective is to illustrate an ecological-economic system at a high level of aggregation, and to illustrate different aspects of the competing economy and an world view of ecological-economy, including the concepts on a sustainable scale. Formulation experiments indicate the importance of technology in the economic growth, as well as the sensitivity of output to industrial specialization. Formulation experiments also illustrate how a natural capital-based limitation on the development of manufactured capital affects output, how the increasing scarcity of resources places a drag on output, and how that drag may result in overshoot and collapse, even if common assumptions of technological development and factor substitutability are employed. The results indicate that: 1) the economic development in Qinghai Province is largely dependent on natural resources, so it is difficult to achieve sustainable development, and the temporal development mode of Qinghai province is not sustainable; 2) technical contribution to economic growth is very prominent, and the rate of technical substitution for natural resources is low; 3) national investment is an important guarantee for Qinghai to build an environment-friendly society; 4) the only way to realize sustainable development in Qinghai province is to change the mode of economic development and develop circular economy. |
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| Keywords: | Ecological economics System dynamics Resources-environmental-economic system Qinghai Province |
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