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| 气候变化和人类活动对澜沧江—湄公河流域径流变化的影响 | |
| 引用本文： | 李任之,黄河清,余国安,俞荭.气候变化和人类活动对澜沧江—湄公河流域径流变化的影响[J].资源科学,2021,43(12):2428-2441. |
| 作者姓名： | 李任之 黄河清 余国安 俞荭 |
| 作者单位： | 1.应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京 100085 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101 3.中国科学院大学,北京100049 4.中科星图股份有限公司,北京101399 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41561144012);澜沧江—湄公河合作专项;国家自然科学基金项目(41661144030);国家自然科学基金项目(41330751) |
| 摘 要： | 作为连接六国的跨境河流,澜沧江—湄公河（澜湄）流域的径流变化与流域内各国以及相关地区的社会经济发展和生产生活方式密切相关。为深入了解澜湄流域地表水资源的时空变化特性及主要影响因素,本文基于1961—2015年澜湄流域气象水文资料,分析了澜湄流域径流变化趋势和突变特征,构建了体现澜湄流域特性的SWAT水文模型,定量评估了气候变化和人类活动对澜湄流域径流变化的影响。主要结论为：①年尺度上,澜湄流域径流在旧州站变化趋势不明显,在允景洪站呈显著下降趋势,在万象和上丁站呈先下降后上升趋势;季节尺度上,各水文站旱、雨季径流变化趋势与年尺度基本一致,旱季径流量变化幅度较小,雨季径流量变化幅度较大。②1998—2000年为全流域径流发生突变的集中期,因此将各区域径流的变化期划分为2000年之前和之后两部分。③气候变化对澜湄流域径流的影响程度自上游到下游逐渐减小,人类活动的影响程度则逐渐加大,且人类活动对旱季径流的影响程度大于雨季。本文结果有助于了解澜湄流域水资源现状和变化趋势,为澜湄流域水资源合理利用以及“一带一路”沿线国家的社会经济可持续发展提供参考和借鉴。 |
| 关 键 词： | 径流变化 气候变化 人类活动 SWAT 水资源 时空变化 澜沧江—湄公河 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-05-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021-08-25 |
Contributions of climatic variation and human activities to streamflow changes in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin |
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| LI Renzhi,HUANG Heqing,YU Guoan,YU Hong.Contributions of climatic variation and human activities to streamflow changes in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin[J].Resources Science,2021,43(12):2428-2441. | |
| Authors: | LI Renzhi HUANG Heqing YU Guoan YU Hong |
| Institution: | 1. National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of the People’s Republic of China, Beijing 100085, China 2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Reated Land Surface Process, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 4. Zhongke Xingtu Co., Ltd, Beijing 101399, China |
| Abstract: | As a cross-border river that connects six countries, the streamflow changes of the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) are closely related to the socioeconomic development and production and life style of the countries in this basin. In order to systematically understand the changes of surface water resources in the LMRB, this study analyzed the trend and abrupt change characteristics of streamflow and quantitatively determined the influence of climate and human activities on streamflow in the basin based on the streamflow and meteorological data from 1961 to 2015. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) At the annual scale, the streamflow of the Jiuzhou Station didn’t show a significant trend from 1961-2010. However, there was a significant decreasing trend at the Yunjinghong Station from 1961-2014. The average streamflow of the Vientiane Station and the Stung Treng Station both showed a trend from decline to rise. At the seasonal scale, the variation trend of streamflow was consistent with that at the annual scale in both the dry and rainy seasons. The variation range of streamflow was small in the dry season but large in the rainy season. (2) The main period of abrupt change occurred in 1998-2000, so the streamflow change period of the four areas (Jiuzhou above, Jiuzhou-Yunjinghong, Yunjinghong-Vientiane, and Vientiane-Stung Treng basins) was divided into before and after 2000. (3) The impact of climate change on streamflow in the LMRB decreased from the upper reaches to the lower reaches (except the delta region) and the impact of human activities increased gradually. The impact of human activities on streamflow in the dry season was greater than that in the rainy season. The variation of streamflow was mainly affected by precipitation in the LMRB while the streamflow at the Stung Treng Station was mainly affected by human activities after 2000. |
| Keywords: | streamflow change climatic variation human activities SWAT water resource spatiotemporal variation Lancang-Mekong River |
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