| 北京市水土资源对经济增长的阻尼效应研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 万永坤,董锁成,王隽妮,毛琦梁,刘佳骏.北京市水土资源对经济增长的阻尼效应研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):475-480. |
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| 作者姓名： | 万永坤 董锁成 王隽妮 毛琦梁 刘佳骏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101／中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技基础性工作专项重点项目：“中国北方及其毗邻地区综合科学考察”(编号：2007FY110300)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 国内学者借鉴＂增长阻尼＂的研究方法,认为中国经济增长速度由于水土资源的限制每年下降1.45%,但由于在模型和数据选取存在一定的不足,并忽略了投入要素之间的替代关系,使得所计算出的阻尼系数并不符合实际情况。因此,本文针对当前资源阻尼效应研究所存在的不足,对北京市水土资源阻尼系数进行了计算和分析,结果表明水土资源阻尼系数都围绕着经济增长上下波动,因产业结构升级和资源集约利用,北京市水资源阻尼效应从2002年开始逐渐减弱;土地资源阻尼效应在1998年-2008年期间有所缓解,但2008年以后又开始围绕经济增长上下波动,深入研究后得出由于技术进步发挥了要素替代作用,短期内缓解了资源约束;但要最终解决资源约束,必须依靠要素替代和产业结构调整共同作用。此外,对于资源短缺地区,只有通过市场机制利用外部资源,才是解决资源约束的有效途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 水土资源 经济增长 阻尼效应 |
Damping Effects of Water and Land Resources on Economic Growth in Beijing |
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| WAN Yongkun,DONG Suocheng,WANG Junni,MAO Qiliang and LIU Jiajun.Damping Effects of Water and Land Resources on Economic Growth in Beijing[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):475-480. |
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| Authors: | WAN Yongkun DONG Suocheng WANG Junni MAO Qiliang and LIU Jiajun |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | By learning from the research method of "growth damping", domestic scholars believe that China's economic growth rate declines by 1.45% per year due to land and water resources limits. However, the calculated damping coefficient is not realistic because of the shortcomings of model and data selection as well as the ignorance of the substitution relation among input factors, Therefore, based on the analysis of the inadequate previous studies on the damping effect of resources, this paper has calculated and analyzed the damping coefficient of water and land resources in Beijing. The results show that: 1) The damping coefficient of water and land resources fluctuates with economic growth. Because of Beijing's upgrading of industrial structure and intensive use of resources, the damping effect of water resources has began to decrease gradually since 2002; 2) The damping effect of land resources eased during the period of 1998-2008, but it began to fluctuate with economic growth after 2008. That is to say, land resource will be the primary constraint for Beijing's economic growth in the future. After intensive study, we obtain that as technological advances have played the factor substitution effect, the resource constraints can be eased in a short term. But in order to solve the problem ultimately, we must rely on both factor substitution and industrial restructuring. In addition, for regions which suffer resource shortage, only the use of external resources through market mechanism is an effective way to deal with resource constraints. |
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| Keywords: | Water and land resources Economic growth Damping effect |
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