| 土地供给冲击、公共资源配置与中国经济波动——“动态新凯恩斯主义”DSGE模型的视角 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱军.土地供给冲击、公共资源配置与中国经济波动——“动态新凯恩斯主义”DSGE模型的视角[J].资源科学,2013,35(6):1115-1124. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱军 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京财经大学财政与税务学院,南京210046;财政部财政科学研究所博士后流动站,北京100142 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(编号:10YJC790416);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(编号:PAPD);中国博士后基金项目(2013M530568)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前鲜有文献基于政府配置的财政资源和政府控制的自然资源供给变化讨论中国宏观经济波动问题.并且目前涉及到的宏观DSGE模型较少基于“贝叶斯”参数估计进行脉冲响应研究.据此,本文构建了含土地供给冲击、财政支出冲击的“动态新凯恩斯主义”DSGE模型研究了中国的宏观经济波动问题.研究发现:中央公共资源配置与地方公共资源配置的经济效应是类似的；土地供给量与土地房产税负的经济影响存在很大的差别;政府土地资源配置对实际产出会形成即期的扩张效应,但随后即形成“挤出”效应,并且其对实际产出的波动影响程度大于土地房产税负的影响；土地资源供给冲击对实际产出和通货膨胀波动方差的贡献是逐渐增加的.
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| 关 键 词： | 土地供给 公共资源 经济波动 DSGE模型 政府 |
| 收稿时间： | 2/4/2013 12:00:00 AM |
Land Supply Shocks, Public Resource Arrangement and Economic Fluctuations Based on Dynamic New Keynesian Economics |
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| ZHU Jun.Land Supply Shocks, Public Resource Arrangement and Economic Fluctuations Based on Dynamic New Keynesian Economics[J].Resources Science,2013,35(6):1115-1124. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Jun |
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| Institution: | School of Public Finance and Taxation, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing 210046, China;Postdoctoral Station of Research Institute for Fiscal Science, Beijing 100142, China |
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| Abstract: | During the process of economic development, public resource arrangements and efficiency are very important for government and the whole of society. Few studies have addressed Chinese macroeconomic fluctuations based on the allocation of fiscal expenditure resources and supply changes in natural resources controlled by the government. This remains an essential research problem because most resources, especially land, are controlled by the government in China. Here, we construct a Dynamic New Keynesian DSGE model with land supply and fiscal expenditure shocks to study Chinese economic fluctuation. In order to avoid problems when calibrating parameters, Bayesian methods were adopted to increase the degree of accuracy. We found that the economic impact of public resource allocation between the central government and local government is similar. The economic impact between land supply shock and land property tax shock is different. The resource allocation of land has the greater affect and an immediate expansionary effect on actual output, followed by a crowding out effect on actual output. The effect of land supply shock on fluctuations in actual output and economic inflation is increasing gradually. We conclude by discussing the government's guidance role in the process of arranging public expenditure between the central and local government, and arranging land supply. |
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| Keywords: | Land supply Public resources Economic fluctuations DSGE model Government |
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