| 1995年至2007年中国能源消费强度的分解模型及实证分析——基于结构份额和效率份额视角 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘静华,贾仁安,涂国平.1995年至2007年中国能源消费强度的分解模型及实证分析——基于结构份额和效率份额视角[J].资源科学,2010,32(10):1846-1855. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘静华 贾仁安 涂国平 |
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| 作者单位： | 南昌大学理学院,南昌,330031 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科协课题：“中国能源利用效率研究报告项目”。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于能源消费强度的恒等式,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法(Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia Method,LMD),建立中国三大产业能源消费强度的因素分解模型,定量分析了1995年-2007年间,能源效率因素和结构因素的变化对中国能源消费强度的影响,并研究了煤、石油、电力三种能源消费强度的两因素分解贡献值比较和三大产业间效率因素和结构因素的贡献份额比较对中国能源消费强度的影响,结果表明第二产业的效率因素是影响中国能源强度变化的主要因素,煤的消费强度与中国能源的消费强度变化一致,提出了降低第二产业重点耗能产业的能源效率、技术进步和优化经济结构三大管理对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消费强度 效率份额 结构份额 管理对策 |
A Decomposition Model and Analysis of Energy Consumption Intensity in China during 1995-2007 Based on Structural and Efficiency Contributions |
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| LIU Jinghu,JIA Renan and TU Guoping.A Decomposition Model and Analysis of Energy Consumption Intensity in China during 1995-2007 Based on Structural and Efficiency Contributions[J].Resources Science,2010,32(10):1846-1855. |
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| Authors: | LIU Jinghu JIA Renan and TU Guoping |
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| Institution: | School of Science, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;School of Science, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China;School of Science, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the energy consumption intensity equation and the logarithmic mean weight Divisia (LMD) method, a decomposition model for China's three industrial energy consumption intensities was established, and was applied to quantify influences of energy efficiency and energy structure in China during the period 1995-2007. Effects of the contributions of the structure and efficiency of the energy consumption intensity for the coal, oil, and electricity, and for three industries on China's energy consumption intensity were systematically investigated. Results showed that the energy consumption efficiency for the secondary industry is the primary factor determining China's energy consumption. Coal consumption intensity showed a general consistent trend with the China's energy consumption intensity. On the basis of this, it is suggested that decreasing the energy efficiency of dominant energy-extensive industries in the secondary industry, technology advancement and further optimizing the economic structure can be considered in policy-making to decrease China's energy consumption intensity. It was concluded that: 1) the trend of energy consumption in China was increasing during the study period, and the proportion of the secondary industry was more than 76 percent. The secondary industry was the major energy consumption industry; 2) the energy consumption intensity in China was generally decreasing; 3) efficiency is a major factor affecting the energy intensity in China. The energy intensity efficiency of the secondary industry played a prominent role in the total energy intensity; 4) the trend of coal consumption intensity and the contribution of efficiency and structural factors were generally consistent with the trend of the total energy consumption intensity in China, illustrating that coal plays a fundamental role in energy consumption; and 5) effects of the primary industry can be negligible. To decrease the energy consumption intensity of China, some policies and suggestions are given as follows: 1) continually optimizing economic structure. It has been implied that the structural contribution was not significant, merely increasing the energy intensity to some degree, which is not in accordance with the realistic functions of structural adjustment in decreasing the energy intensity. It is suggested that the potential of economic structural adjustment to decrease energy intensity need to be increased; 2) technology advance is a major way of decreasing energy intensity. Improving the industry energy efficiency is an effective and direct way of decreasing energy intensity in China; 3) improving the energy efficiency of the secondary industry is the key to decrease energy intensity; and 4) specific energy intensity requires specific measures to realize energy structural optimization. |
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| Keywords: | Energy intensity Efficiency Structure Policy |
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