| 基于循环经济深入发展的减物质化多重因素分解 |
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| 引用本文： | 李慧明,王磊.基于循环经济深入发展的减物质化多重因素分解[J].资源科学,2008,30(10):1484-1490. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李慧明 王磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 南开大学循环经济研究中心,天津300071;南开大学循环经济研究中心,天津300071 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目：“物质经济代谢分析与调控管理的研究”(编号：70673045)；国家社会科学基金重大项目：“我国
生态文明发展战略研究”(编号：07&ZD018)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 从减物质化的内涵出发，阐述减物质化是循环经济深入发展和维持生态经济大系统均衡和功能的关键。基于拉斯拜尔指数和完全分解模型，对减物质化进行多重因素分解，研究物质强度、经济结构和经济规模对物质减量的影响，分析物质消耗的反弹效应与减量效应，以1985年～2006年我国能源消耗为例进行实证研究。结果表明：经济规模扩张是驱动我国能源消耗的主导因素，21年间共计驱动能源消耗23.6×108t标煤。经济结构的不尽合理增加能源消耗1.82×108t标煤，经济规模效应与结构效应的叠加使我国能源消费量呈逐年递增趋势。能源强度的减量效应共节约能源9.67×108t标煤，但强度因素的物质减量效应被经济规模扩张效应的增加所抵消，能源消耗的反弹效应明显。因此，在通过物质强度指标调控物质流动路径和方式的同时，应注重经济结构良性调整产生的减量效应，进而减小与抑制反弹效应，通过物质绝对减量指标测度循环经济的发展水平，实现经济发展与生态环境的良性互动。
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| 关 键 词： | 减物质化 完全分解模型 物质强度 反弹效应 循环经济 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/2/2008 12:00:00 AM |
Decomposition Analysis on Dematerialization for the Further Development of Circular Economy |
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| LI Hui-ming and WANG Lei.Decomposition Analysis on Dematerialization for the Further Development of Circular Economy[J].Resources Science,2008,30(10):1484-1490. |
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| Authors: | LI Hui-ming and WANG Lei |
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| Abstract: | Even as the concept of circular economy has made great progress in China, it is often misapplied. This paper starts from the concept of dematerialization, which is the key measure to promote the development of circular economy and maintain the equilibrium and function of the ecological-economic system. On the basis of the Laspeyres index and a complete decomposition model, we decomposed the factors related to dematerialization, and evaluated the dynamic effect on material saving due to material use intensity, economic structure, and economic scale, especially the rebound effect and dematerialized effect. We did empirical research on energy consumption during the period of 1985 to 2006 in China, calculating the effect of economy scale and material use intensity on changes in energy consumption, and analyzed the impact of economic structure adjustment on energy-saving. The result shows that expansion of economic scale is the major factor driving changes in energy consumption. The total amount of energy consumption in 21years is equivalent to 23.6×108 tons of coal. The inappropriate economic structure increased energy consumption by 1.82×108 tons of coal. From this data, we can conclude that adjustment of the economic structure played a negative role in the process of energy saving. The combined impact of economic scale and economic structure caused an increase in energy consumption. The impact of material use intensity on energy consumption was consistent, and the ratio of material use intensity of the secondary industrial sector to the total was the biggest, more than 76 percent, while primary industry and tertiary industry had relatively smaller ratios. The energy savings created by the dematerialized effect totaled 9.67×108 tons of coal, but this savings effect was canceled out by the expansion effect of economic scale, and thus there was an obvious rebound effect of energy consumption. Thus, research related to energy consumption should focus on decreasing energy intensity in secondary industry and improving energy utilization efficiency. In addition, we should emphasize the savings effect enabled by the proper adjustment of economic structure and control the rebound effect, and meanwhile adjust and control the path and pattern of material flow by a material intensity relative index. We also suggested that the level of Circular Economy be estimated based on the absolute dematerialization index to promote harmonious interaction between economic development and the ecological environment. |
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| Keywords: | Dematerialization Complete decomposition method Material use intensity Rebound effect Circular economy |
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