| 怒江流域降水与气温变化及其对跨境径流的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚治君,段瑞,刘兆飞.怒江流域降水与气温变化及其对跨境径流的影响分析[J].资源科学,2012,34(2):202-210. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚治君 段瑞 刘兆飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101
2. 中国科学院院地合作局,北京,100864 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(编号:2010CB951702);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-310) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用非参数统计检验方法对怒江流域降水、平均气温及径流等要素的单调变化趋势进行了显著性检验,并基于各要素时、空变化特点,分析了降水和气温的变化对径流变化可能存在的影响。结果表明：①怒江流域在1958年-2009年呈增温增湿的趋势。尽管流域年降水量呈增加趋势,但在最近20年却表现出较为明显的减少趋势;流域增温幅度越来越大,最近20年增幅达0.5℃/10a;②道街坝站径流量在1958年-2000年间检测到了显著的增加趋势,且增幅越来越大;③流域降水的时空变化特点加速了道街坝站径流量的增加趋势;④由于径流量补给来源及其比例的不同,各水文站径流量变化受气温和降水变化的影响也有所差异,受冰雪融水径流补给的嘉玉桥和道街坝站,径流量的增加由降水增加和气温升高引起的冰雪融水径流量增加共同影响,而气温升高对径流量的影响与冰雪融水径流所占比例大小相关。
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| 关 键 词： | 怒江 气候变化 Mann-Kendall 跨径流量 冰雪融水 |
Changes in Precipitation and Air Temperature and Its Impacts on Runoff in the Nujiang River basin |
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| YAO Zhijun,DUAN Rui and LIU Zhaofei.Changes in Precipitation and Air Temperature and Its Impacts on Runoff in the Nujiang River basin[J].Resources Science,2012,34(2):202-210. |
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| Authors: | YAO Zhijun DUAN Rui and LIU Zhaofei |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Bureau of Academy-Locality Cooperation Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | Climate change is likely to produce significant effects on the hydrological cycle through altering snow and ice cover,patterns of precipitation,soil moisture,and runoff.In this study,trends in precipitation,mean air temperature,and runoff were detected by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test in the Nujiang River basin.Nujiang River is one of the important international rivers in China.Impacts of changes in precipitation and air temperature on runoff were quantified based on the temporal and spatial distributions of these hydrometeorological variables.The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet were used to detect trends and periodicity of major hydrometeorological variables respectively.Results show that both precipitation and air temperature exhibited increasing trends during the period 1958-2009.Although an increasing trend in precipitation was observed,it exhibited a markedly decreasing trend over the last 20 years.The magnitude of the increasing trends in air temperature increased,with a value of 0.5℃/10a during the last 20 years.Precipitation of the basin showed an increasing trend,with a magnitude of 6.0 mm/10a.It,however,tended to decrease over the past 20 years.Runoff at the Daojieba station showed a statistically significant increasing trend,with increasing magnitudes,e.g.,87×103m3/10a, 121×103m3/10a,and 440×103m3/10a in the periods of 1958-1979,1970-1990,and 1980-2000, respectively.All of monthly runoff also experienced increasing trends except for August.Changes in precipitation were considered to play a positive effect on the increasing runoff at the Daojieba station.In terms of hydrologic budget calculations,soil storage changes could be negligible at interannual scales.Therefore,runoff changes appear to be caused by changes in precipitation, glacier and snow melt,and evapotranspiration within the basin.Results show that impacts of changes in precipitation and air temperature on runoff were affected primarily by runoff sources and corresponding ratios.For example,increasing runoff at the Jiayuqiao and Daojieba stations were affected by increasing precipitation and increasing snow-melt runoff caused by rising air temperature,while impacts of increasing air temperature on runoff were consistent with the ratio of snow-melt runoff and total runoff.It was concluded that impacts of increasing precipitation on increasing runoff were at most 2.4 mm/a for the Jiayuqiao station located in the upper reaches of the Nujiang River,whereas increasing glacier and snow melting runoff caused by rising air temperature on runoff was at least 38.5%.As for the Daojieba station located in the lower reaches of the study region,impacts of increasing precipitation on increasing runoff were estimated to be 94.1%at most. |
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| Keywords: | Nujiang River Climate change Mann-Kendall test Morlet wavelet Snow-melt runoff |
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