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| 中国人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响 | |
| 引用本文： | 田成诗,郝艳,李文静,曲本亮.中国人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响[J].资源科学,2015,37(12):2309-2318. |
| 作者姓名： | 田成诗 郝艳 李文静 曲本亮 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 东北财经大学统计学院,大连 116025 2. 大连市环境科学设计研究院,大连 116023 |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重大项目（14ZDB130）;国家社会科学基金一般项目（11BRK005）;辽宁省社科基金（L15BJY017） |
| 摘 要： | 近年来,将人口年龄结构作为温室气体排放驱动因素的研究很少,已有的研究也只是将人口年龄做简单分类,由此导致对年龄结构影响碳排放的考察不够深入和具体。本文细化了人口年龄结构,将人口年龄划分为0~14岁、15~29岁、30~44岁、45~59岁和60岁及以上五个组别,并基于扩展的随机STIRPAT模型考察了人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响,以达到更好地解释人口年龄结构对中国碳排放影响机制的目的。研究结果表明,人口年龄结构对碳排放影响显著。不同年龄人口所占比重不同,对碳排放影响不同。其中,30~44岁人口对碳排放的影响最大,15~29岁人口的影响不显著,60岁及以上人口比重对碳排放的影响为负。分析还表明,随着中国老龄化进程的加快,无论从生产还是消费渠道看,未来中国人口年龄结构变化都有减缓碳排放加速的可能。本文最后提出了从消费渠道降低碳排放的对策建议。 |
| 关 键 词： | 人口年龄结构 碳排放 影响 STIRPAT模型 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-12-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-05-15 |
Population age structure effects on carbon emission in China |
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| TIAN Chengshi,HAO Yan,LI Wenjing,QU Benliang.Population age structure effects on carbon emission in China[J].Resources Science,2015,37(12):2309-2318. | |
| Authors: | TIAN Chengshi HAO Yan LI Wenjing QU Benliang |
| Institution: | 1. College of Statistics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China 2. Dalian Municipal Design and Research Institute of Environmental Science,Dalian 116023,China |
| Abstract: | There are many driving factors for carbon emissions such as economic level,industrial structure,energy consumption,technical level,total population and population structure. In recent years,it has become an important subject for monitoring and analyzing the impacts of human factors such as population on carbon emissions. However,research into populations and carbon emissions has focused on the investigation of size of population,and most research has ignored or over-simplified the change in structural factors such as age structure during the process of demographic transition and emissions. Here,we refine population age structure and divide it into the groups 0~14,15~29,30~44,45~59 and over 60,then investigate the impact of population age structure on carbon emissions with the extended stochastic STIRPAT model in order to explain the influencing mechanism of population age structure on carbon emission in China. We found that population age structure has a significant impact on carbon emissions. It has a different impact on carbon emissions for different age groups. The impact is the largest for the group aged 30 to 44,and it is not significant for the group 15 to 29;the elastic coefficient of carbon emissions is negative for the group aged over 60. With China’s aging population,it is possible that changes in population age structure will reduce carbon emissions whether in production or consumption channel. We discuss advice for reducing carbon emissions from the consumption channel. |
| Keywords: | population age structure carbon emission STIRPAT model |
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