| 漳卫南运河流域水文气象要素长期变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡锡填,徐宗学,李占玲.漳卫南运河流域水文气象要素长期变化趋势分析[J].资源科学,2008,30(3):363-370. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡锡填 徐宗学 李占玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学水科学研究院,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京,100875 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京师范大学京师学者特聘教授启动经费 |
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| 摘 要： | 漳卫南运河流域是一个对气候变化十分敏感、人类活动又非常活跃的地区。本研究采用非参数MannKendall检验方法和R／S方法对漳卫南运河流域50年来的水文气象要素进行分析，并从气候变化和人类活动两方面分析其变化的原因。结果表明：受气候变化影响，50年来本流域气温上升了1．08℃，降水减少了83．2mm．而且这种趋势在未来仍可能持续一段时间；相对湿度的变化，在西部山区主要受气候变化影响呈下降趋势，在东部平原区受农业灌溉所产生的局部小气候影响呈上升趋势，但未来可能向相反趋势发展；径流量受人工调节，一致呈下降趋势，并且未来仍将持续一段时间。在气候变化和人类活动共同影响下，漳卫南运河流域有可能进一步朝暖干化方向发展。从更大范围的水循环来看．从本流域蒸发的水量可能随着季风在其它区域形成降水。进一步的研究可以分析包括土壤湿度、蒸散发、水汽传输和季风在内的区域水循环．以及气候变化和人类活动影响下的产汇流机理。从而找出区域干旱化的根本原因。
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| 关 键 词： | 漳卫南运河流域 Mann-Kendau Hurst指数 气候变化 人类活动 农业灌溉 运河流域 水文气象要素 变化趋势分析 Basin River Changes Trend 干旱化 机理 产汇流 活动影响 人类 传输 水汽 蒸散发 土壤湿度 区域 季风 水量 流域蒸发 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2008）03-0363-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-09-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-11-15 |
Analyzing Long-Term Trend of Hydrological and Meteorological Changes in Zhangweinan River Basin |
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| CAI Xi-tian,XU Zong-xue and LI Zhan-ling.Analyzing Long-Term Trend of Hydrological and Meteorological Changes in Zhangweinan River Basin[J].Resources Science,2008,30(3):363-370. |
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| Authors: | CAI Xi-tian XU Zong-xue and LI Zhan-ling |
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| Abstract: | Zhangweinan River basin is heavily affected by human activities and sensitive to climate change. In this paper, Mann-Kendall test and R/S methods were used to estimate the long-term trend of hydrological and meteorological changes in Zhangweinan River basin during the past 50 years. The factors influencing hydrological and meteorological changes were analyzed. Such variables as annual and monthly mean air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, relative humidity, minimum relative humidity, precipitation and runoff were analyzed based on Mann-Kendall test and R/S methods. The results indicate that, in Zhangweinan River basin, the annual mean air temperature has increased by 1.08 oC, mainly due to the rise of mean minimum air temperature and the annual precipitation has decreased by 83.2 mm. These trends will sustain for some periods in the future. Relative humidity represents a downward trend in the western mountain area and an upward trend in the eastern plain. The trend may be reversed in the future. There is a strongly sustained downward trend for runoff. It is predicted that the climate in Zhangweinan River basin will become warmer and drier in the future. In view of larger hydrological cycle, the water lost in this area may move along with monsoon and become rainfall in other areas. Future studies should further focus on regional water cycle such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration, water vapor transfer and monsoon, and mechanism of runoff generation under the impacts of climate change and human activities. |
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| Keywords: | Zhangweinan River Mann-Kendall Hurst Climate change Human activity Irrigation |
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