| 基于PSR模型的房地产调控政策对房价影响的研究—以北京市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李玲,朱道林,胡克林.基于PSR模型的房地产调控政策对房价影响的研究—以北京市为例[J].资源科学,2012,34(4):787-793. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李玲 朱道林 胡克林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193／北京城市学院公共管理学部,北京100083
2. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京,100193 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号:41001372). |
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| 摘 要： | 研究房地产调控政策对房价的影响,可为政府制定合理的调控政策、平抑房价提供参考。在综合分析房价影响因素的基础上,分别筛选了压力、状态和响应指标,构建了基于PSR模型的房地产调控政策对于房价影响的评价体系。采用层次分析法确定了各指标的权重,并对北京市房地产政策的调控效果进行了初步量化。研究结果表明,北京市房价随着政策调控周期的变化而呈现出有规律的升降变化,在政策鼓励期,房价总体呈上升趋势,在政策收缩期,房价呈下降趋势,说明房价对政策的调控反应敏感。并发现政策对房价的调控具有一定的滞后性,滞后周期为3个月左右。为了平抑当前过高的房价,建议从土地政策、税收政策、保障房政策等方面来加强调控力度。
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| 关 键 词： | 房价 调控政策 评价系统 PSR模型 |
Application of PSR Model to the Effects of Real Estate Regulation Policy on House Price:A Case of Beijing |
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| LI Ling,ZHU Daolin and HU Kelin.Application of PSR Model to the Effects of Real Estate Regulation Policy on House Price:A Case of Beijing[J].Resources Science,2012,34(4):787-793. |
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| Authors: | LI Ling ZHU Daolin and HU Kelin |
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| Institution: | College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; College of Public Management, Beijing City University, Beijing 100083, China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China |
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| Abstract: | This study is made to investigate the effect of the real estate regulation policy on house price and at the same time provide some suggestions for formulating resonable regulation policy and stabilizing house price in Beijing. Firstly, based on the comprehensive analysis of various influencing factors of house price, we selected the indicators of pressure, state and response respectively; Secondly, we used the hierarchy analysis method to determine the weights of various indicators, and then built up an evaluation system of the real estate regulation policy based on Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model; At last, we found that the evaluation system can reveal various factors that cause the increase of house price and reflect the interaction between control policy of real estate industry and house price. The house price tends to rise during policy-encouraging period while it tends to descend during policy-contracting period, so the house price is very sensitive to regulation policies. The effects of adjusting policies about land use, tax and indemnificatory apartment on house price are indistinct but the effect of regulating the financial credit policy on house price is obvious. In addition, the adjustment policy has some hysteretic effects and the hysteretic period is about three months. In order to quickly control the high house price, we need to change the adjusting directions and tighten the degree of regulation in land use, tax and indemnificatory apartment policies. This study has only explored the impact of policies on house price in Beijing, and in other cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou or small cities, the impact needs to be further investigated. |
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| Keywords: | House price Adjustment policies Evaluation system Pressure-State-Response Model |
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