| 基于CLUE-S模型的罗玉沟流域多尺度土地利用变化模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄明,张学霞,张建军,赵紫阳,茹豪.基于CLUE-S模型的罗玉沟流域多尺度土地利用变化模拟[J].资源科学,2012,34(4):769-776. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄明 张学霞 张建军 赵紫阳 茹豪 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京,100083 |
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| 基金项目： | "十二五"国家科技支撑课题(编号:2011BAD38B0603);国家973项目(编号:2012CB955403). |
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| 摘 要： | CLUE-S模型是适用于较小尺度的区域土地利用变化空间格局动态研究的模型。为了探索CLUE-S模型在小流域的适用性及最佳适用尺度,本文以甘肃天水罗玉沟流域为研究区,根据2001年和2008年两期土地利用数据,在筛选出的7类土地利用变化驱动因素的基础上,以2001年土地利用数据为基期,利用不同的空间尺度（25m×25m、50m×50m、75m×75m、100m×100m、和125m×125m）,运用CLUE-S模型进行了流域2008年的土地利用空间格局的模拟,并以2008年土地利用现状图加以验证。结果表明：CLUE-S模型在罗玉沟流域的适用性很好。模型模拟的最佳尺度为50m,在该尺度下耕地、园地、林地、草地、居民用地、水域和未利用地的Kappa指数依次为95.71%、88.97%、90.68%、74.66%、74.53%、96.89%、81.94%,总Kappa指数值为92.34%。说明CLUE-S模型能够准确地模拟小流域尺度的土地利用变化。在此基础上又分别模拟了自然增长、经济发展、生态保护等3种情景下罗玉沟流域2020年的土地利用格局。结果表明：在不同情景下,土地利用变化均主要发生在大于15°的坡地上,在开发利用过程中应适当采取生态保护与水土流失防治措施,防止造成流域生境的破坏。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地利用/土地覆被变化 CLUE-S模型 小流域 情景模拟 |
A Multi-Scale Simulation of Land Use Change in Luoyugou Watershed Based on CLUE-S Model |
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| HUANG Ming,ZHANG Xuexi,ZHANG Jianjun,ZHAO Ziyang and RU Hao.A Multi-Scale Simulation of Land Use Change in Luoyugou Watershed Based on CLUE-S Model[J].Resources Science,2012,34(4):769-776. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Ming ZHANG Xuexi ZHANG Jianjun ZHAO Ziyang and RU Hao |
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| Institution: | College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China;College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | The CLUE-S model is a special model, which has already been widely applied into the dynamic studies about the spatial pattern of smaller-scale regional land use change. To investigate the applicability and the best applicable scale of the CLUE-S model in small watershed, this paper has simulated the spatial pattern of land use change in 2008 in Luoyugou watershed of TianShui City, Gansu Province with this model at five different scales (25m×25m, 50m×50m, 75m×75m, 100m×100m,and 125m×125m) based on the land use data of 2001(as the base year) and 2008 and seven driving factors for land use change (digital elevation model, slope, slope direction, curvature, the distance to road, the distance to town center and the distance to river). Besides, the simulated maps were verified by the present land use map of 2008. The results show that the application of the CLUE-S model has got quite favorable results in the study area, and the best simulation scale is 50m. Under this scale, the Kappa indices of cultivated land, orchard, forest land, meadow, residential area, water area and unused land are 95.71%, 88.97%, 90.68%, 74.66%, 74.53%, 96.89%, 81.94% respectively and the aggregated Kappa index value of all study areas is 92.34%. Therefore, it has been proved that the CLUE-S model can accurately simulate the land use change in small watershed. The spatial patterns of land use under three different scenarios: the natural increase scenario, the economic growth scenario and the ecological conservation scenario in 2020 were also simulated by this model. At last, by comparing the simulation maps under three different scenarios, we get a result that the land use changes mainly happen on the hillside land with a slope larger than 15 degree. Therefore, during the process of development and utilization of Luoyugou watershed, a series of appropriate measures about the ecological protection and the prevention of water and soil erosion should be taken at the same time to prevent the ecological environment of the watersheds from serious destruction. |
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| Keywords: | Land use change CLUE–S Model Small watershed Scenarios simulation |
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