| 甘肃省能源经济系统分析与优化策略研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨 冕,陈兴鹏,杨福霞.甘肃省能源经济系统分析与优化策略研究[J].资源科学,2010,32(2):359-365. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨 冕 陈兴鹏 杨福霞 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州,730000
2. 兰州大学经济学院,兰州,730000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，甘肃省社会科学重大课题 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 能源经济系统的优化不仅是实现区域节能减排目标的重要途径,更是社会经济可持续发展的主要内容,本文以甘肃省为研究案例,基于计量经济学方法,对其经济增长与能源消耗之间的动态关系进行了定量研究;进而运用结构分解模型,对比分析了影响单位GDP能耗的主要因素。研究结果表明:甘肃省GDP与能耗总量之间存在长期的协整关系;促进甘肃省能源强度降低的主要因素是各产业能源利用效率的提高,而产业结构变动对全省能源强度降低的贡献份额较小;对能源强度降低贡献较大的为第二产业的效率份额与结构份额,而第三产业结构份额对能源强度降低的贡献为负。文章最后从产业结构优化、关键技术推进、能源结构优化三个角度提出了甘肃省能源经济系统的优化策略。
|
| 关 键 词： | 能源经济系统 协整分析 结构分解模型 能源强度 甘肃省 |
A Study on the Strategy of Optimizing Regional Energy-Economy |
| |
| YANG Mian,CHEN Xingpeng and YANG Fuxia.A Study on the Strategy of Optimizing Regional Energy-Economy[J].Resources Science,2010,32(2):359-365. |
| |
| Authors: | YANG Mian CHEN Xingpeng and YANG Fuxia |
| |
| Abstract: | Optimizing the energy-economy system is not only a way to achieve the goal of energy-saving and emission reductions, but also the main content for regional social and economic sustainable development. In the present work, the authors employed a method from econometrics to analyze the dynamic relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the period of 1985-2007 in Gansu Province. Then, using a model of structural decomposition analysis, the authors quantitatively calculated the rate of the contribution of changes in industrial structure and increases in energy efficiency in each industry to reductions in energy intensity in Gansu Province. The data of total energy consumption and nominal GDP in the period of 1985～ 2007 were obtained from Gansu yearbook (2007-2008), and the energy consumption of each industry in the same period were acquired from Gansu yearbook (1986-2008). In addition, the nominal GDP in each year was transformed into a constant value in terms of 1985 prices and their respective GDP deflators. In the period of 1985-2002, the energy intensity of Gansu Province experienced a dramatically decline from 6.23 tce per GDP to 2.26 tce per GDP, but since then the decrease rate slowed down. Another characteristic of Gansu' s energy condition is that more than 75% of the total energy supplies were consumed by the secondary industry in 2007, especially the heavy industry. The results indicated that LEC and LGDP were non-stationary at their first difference, but stationary at their second difference. It was found that there exists a cointegration relationship between Gansu' s GDP and the total energy consumption in the period of 1985-2007, with showing that a 1% increases in GDP will cause a 0.5% increase in energy consumption. The results from the structure decomposition analysis indicated that the improvement in energy efficiency of each industry was the major factor resulting in decreases in energy intensity, whose average contribution rate reached 80% or so. On the contrary, the influence of changes in industrial structure was negligible. Its average contribution rate was merely 20%. It can be concluded that the improvements in the energy efficiency of the secondary industry played the most important role in resulting in decreases in energy intensity. Reductions in the proportion of the tertiary industry caused the decline in energy efficiency of Gansu Province. At last, based on Gansu' s current situations of the energy-economy system, some optimizing strategies from the perspectives of optimizing industrial and energy structure, and promoting advance in technology were put forward. |
| |
| Keywords: | Energy-economy system Cointegration analysis Structure decomposition model Energy intensity |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
