| 近50年来黄河源区流量对气候变化的响应及其未来变化趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘彩红,朱西德,白彦芳.近50年来黄河源区流量对气候变化的响应及其未来变化趋势预测[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1236-1241. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘彩红 朱西德 白彦芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 青海省气候中心,西宁,810001 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项：“西北地区气候变化评估报告”和“黄河流域气候变化评估报告”共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1961年-2009年黄河上游唐乃亥水文站水文资料及同期该流域气象资料,研究黄河源区流量对气候变化的响应及预测模型,并根据气候模式输出数据,经降尺度处理生成的未来气候情景,对未来黄河源区流量进行了预估。结果表明：近49a间,源区气温呈波动上升态势;蒸发量显著增大,年均降水量没有出现明显的趋势性变化,但具有明显的年际和年代际振荡。源区流量的变化与降水量、气温及蒸发的变化相关关系显著,近49a年来,由于气温的持续上升导致径流蒸散发损耗超过降水量的补给,源区流量总体呈减少趋势。预测未来两个时期2020s、2050s,源区年平均流量分别为593.61m3/s和525.11m3/s,较气候标准期1961年-1990年分别减少14.9%和24.7%。
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| 关 键 词： | 流量 气候变化 响应 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2/8/2011 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 5/9/2011 12:00:00 AM |
A Study on Runoff Response to Climate Change and Its Prediction in the Headwater Region of the Yellow River over the Recent 49 Years |
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| LIU Caihong,ZHU Xide and BAI Yanfang.A Study on Runoff Response to Climate Change and Its Prediction in the Headwater Region of the Yellow River over the Recent 49 Years[J].Resources Science,2011,33(7):1236-1241. |
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| Authors: | LIU Caihong ZHU Xide and BAI Yanfang |
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| Institution: | Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, China;Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, China;Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the headwater regions of the Yellow River was analyzed based on hydrometeorological data in the regions from 1961 to 2009.On the basis of high correlation between runoff and climatic factors,a prediction model of the runoff was established.In terms of future climate scenarios provided by the downscaling climate model,the runoff under medium emission scenarios was predicted.It was found that temperature,precipitation,and evaporation had a great influen... |
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| Keywords: | Runoff Climate change Response Prediction |
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