| 中国火电企业低碳经济发展评价研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 米国芳.中国火电企业低碳经济发展评价研究[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2390-2397. |
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| 作者姓名： | 米国芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 内蒙古财经大学统计与数学学院,呼和浩特,010070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(编号:71162015);科技部创新方法工作专项项目(编号:2010IM040300)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合中国火电企业发展的特点,采用理论分析、专家咨询和经验选取相结合的方法,从低碳经济、低碳生产、低碳社会、低碳环境和低碳资源五个方面构建了火电企业低碳经济发展评价指标体系;并设置了火电企业低碳经济发展的基准情景、受挫情景和低碳情景;构建了三种情景下火电企业低碳经济发展的IAHP-多级模糊综合评价模型,并以托电企业为实例,运用此评价模型对该企业三种情景下低碳经济发展水平进行了预测评价,得出托电企业的三种情景在模拟期间低碳经济发展水平的得分都是一直上升的。最后,对于各模拟期内如何实现低碳情景提出了相应的措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 低碳经济 情景分析 IAHP 多级模糊综合评价 |
Evaluation of Low-Carbon Economic Development Across Thermal Power Enterprises in China |
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| MI Guofang.Evaluation of Low-Carbon Economic Development Across Thermal Power Enterprises in China[J].Resources Science,2012,34(12):2390-2397. |
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| Authors: | MI Guofang |
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| Institution: | School of Statistics and Mathematical, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, China |
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| Abstract: | An evaluation index system to predict and evaluate the level of low-carbon economic development is important to strategic and low-carbon economic development and the innovation and development of low-carbon economic theory. Here we analyze current thermal power enterprises and power development policies in China. An evaluation index system was established for a low-carbon economy, low-carbon production, low-carbon society, low-carbon environment and low-carbon resource. Three scenarios were established including a base scenario, frustrated scenario and low-carbon scenario. Based on improved analytic hierarchy processing and multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods, low-carbon economy development of the Tuoketuo thermal power enterprise was evaluated and predicted under each scenario. The results show that under the low-carbon scenario, the level of low-carbon economic development is higher than for other scenarios in 2015. In 2020 and 2025, low-carbon economic development is highest under the low-carbon scenario and lowest under the base scenario. The development value of the low-carbon economy grows for the Tuoketuo power enterprise from 2015-2025. The value of the low-carbon base scenario in 2020 and 2025 is higher than for the frustration scenario in 2015. The value of the low-carbon frustration scenario in 2025 is higher than the low-carbon scenario in 2015. In order to realize low-carbon economic development, thermal power enterprises need to promote implementation of the low-carbon economy to reduce high-carbon energy consumption and carbon emissions by adopting technological innovation, system innovation and industrial transformation. Such measures can further improve overall levels of low-carbon economic development and realize harmonious development between the economy, society, resources and environment. |
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| Keywords: | Low-carbon economy Scenario analysis Improved analytic hierarchy process Multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation |
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