|
|||||
|
|
| 唐山海岸带土地利用格局的情景模拟 | |
| 引用本文： | 张学儒,王 卫,P.H. Verburg,徐中春.唐山海岸带土地利用格局的情景模拟[J].资源科学,2009,31(8):1392-1399. |
| 作者姓名： | 张学儒 王 卫 P.H. Verburg 徐中春 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,石家庄,050016;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 2. 河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,石家庄,050016;河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄,050016 3. Department,of,Environmental,Sciences,Wagenigen,University,P.O.Box 4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049 |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划，河北省重点基础研究项目 |
| 摘 要： | 本文以唐山海岸带为研究区,基于2000年和2005年TM遥感影像,运用3S技术,通过人机交互目视解译提取了精度较高的两期该区土地利用/土地覆被数据.以2000年土地利用数据为基期,选取距农村居民点距离、距城镇距离、距道路距离、距河流距离、距海岸线距离、地下水埋深、土壤类型、成因地貌、工程地质条件9个自然和社会经济因素作为驱动因素,运用CLUE-S模型模拟了2005年的土地利用类型空间格局,并用2005年的实际解译数据加以验证.结果表明:正确模拟比例达88.95%,Kappa指数为0.8711.说明CLUE-S模型能够较准确地模拟小尺度海岸带地区的土地利用,土地覆被变化.在此基础上又分别模拟了自然增长、土地结构优化、经济发展、生态保护4种情景方案下2015年研究区的土地利用格局.结果表明:在不同情景方案下的土地利用,土地覆被格局存在显著的空间差异,对该区域制定合理的土地管理政策有着指导意义. |
| 关 键 词： | 土地利用/土地覆被变化 CLUE-S模型 情景模拟 唐山海岸带地区 |
Scenarios Simulation of Land Use Pattern in Tangshan Coastal Zone |
|
| ZHANG Xueru,WANG Wei,P.H. Verburg and XU Zhongchun.Scenarios Simulation of Land Use Pattern in Tangshan Coastal Zone[J].Resources Science,2009,31(8):1392-1399. | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Xueru WANG Wei PH Verburg and XU Zhongchun |
| Abstract: | The dynamic simulation and scenario analyses of the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change are studied by many professionals in the research of land use and cover change, and modeling is an important tool for the study. In this paper, CLUE-S model is applied to the change simulation of the spatial patterns of land use to a regional extent on the basis of system theory, which allows an integrated analysis of land use change and the physical and socio-economic driving factors. The spatial resolution of the modeling can reach single grid cell level. The model is used to simulate the regional agriculture and forest land use system in many countries. This paper takes Tangshan Coastal zone as the study area and collects the land use / land cover data in two different periods with higher accuracy, based on the TM remote sensing images in 2000 and 2005, which have been grabbed by using 3S (RS, GIS, GPS) technology. Based on the LUCC data of 2000, this paper chooses the following nine natural and social-economic factors as the driving factors: distances to the rural residential areas, to the town residential areas, and to the roads, river and coastline, groundwater depth, soil types, causes of landform and engineering geology condition. The spatial pattern of land use types in 2005 is simulated by using the CLUE-S model. Compared with the interpretation data of 2005, it can be found that the simulation accuracy is up to 88.95% and the Kappa index is 0.8711; therefore, the CLUE-S Model can be used to simulate the LUCC of coastal zone on a small scale. Furthermore, the land use pattern in 2015 is simulated in four scenarios: natural increase scenario, land structure optimization scenario, economic development scenario and ecological protection scenario. The results show that the LUCC pattern presents obvious spatial diversity in different scenarios.The regions in which the different land use types are prone to competing and conversing are Jingtang Port, western Daqing River, Tanghai Wetland Reserve, surrounding areas of Xiangyun Forest, and Laoting coastal area. Therefore, it is very important to develop land management policies in this region. Although the simulation is generally successful, the CLUE-S Model can not simulate the land use change from continents to ocean, which can be the influential factor for the accuracy of simulation. |
| Keywords: | LUCC CLUE-S model Scenarios simulation Tangshan coastal zone |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》下载免费的PDF全文 | |