| 中国贸易隐含碳净出口的流向及原因分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘俊伶,王克,邹骥.中国贸易隐含碳净出口的流向及原因分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(5):979-987. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘俊伶 王克 邹骥 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872;中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872;中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872;国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心, 北京 100872 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家发展和改革委员会“中国低碳发展宏观战略研究”项目：“中国低碳发展国际环境研究”（编号：201302）；中国人民大学科学研究基金（中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助）项目：“全球贸易内涵碳排放趋势及对中国的影响研究”（编号92326087）。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文使用投入产出模型,基于最新的GTAP8数据库,分析了2004年和2007年中国与发达国家和发展中国家贸易隐含碳流向、结构及变化,结果显示中国均为隐含碳净出口国。基于LMDI法对隐含碳净出口进一步分解发现,影响中国对发达国家和发展中国家隐含碳净出口的因素不同,贸易顺差和排放系数差异是导致中国对发达国家隐含碳净出口的关键因素,行业结构差异和排放系数差异是影响中国对发展中国家净出口的关键原因。这与发达国家、中国和其他发展中国家在全球产业链中的分工密切相关。2004-2007年,中国出口结构逐渐转向高端制造业,生产技术逐渐接近发达国家水平。未来随着中国国内技术进步和产业升级、出口结构优化,隐含碳净出口将会下降,贸易对中国碳排放的驱动力会减弱。
|
| 关 键 词： | 隐含碳净出口 投入产出模型 LMDI分解 GTAP 中国 |
Analysis of the Net Flow of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Trade of China |
| |
| LIU Junling,WANG Ke and ZOU Ji.Analysis of the Net Flow of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Trade of China[J].Resources Science,2014,36(5):979-987. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Junling WANG Ke and ZOU Ji |
| |
| Institution: | School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100872, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the latest GTAP8 database,this paper analyzes the flows,structures and changes in trade embodied carbon emissions between China and the developed world as well as between China and the developing world from 2004 to 2007 using an Input-Output Model. The results show that China is always a net embodied emissions exporting country. Based on the LMDI decomposition method we found that the factors influencing net embodied emissions exported from China to developed countries and to developing countries are different. Trade surplus and emission factors differences are vital factors in deciding net embodied emissions exported from China to the developed world. Differences in export structures and emission factors are the key factors influencing net emissions between China and developing countries. These are closely related to respective divisions amongst developed countries,China and other developing countries in the global industrial chain. From 2004 to 2007,the export structure of China transformed to high-end manufacturing with domestic production technology gradually approaching the level of developed countries. With further technological improvements,industrial upgrades and export structure optimization for China,the net export of embodied carbon emissions will decrease and the driving force of trade for China's domestic carbon emissions will decline. In order to decrease net embodied emissions for China,actions should be taken to reduce industrial complete emission factors. Other measures include industrial structural adjustment and product structure upgrades to high valued added commodities in industries such as Machinery and Equipment and Chemical. |
| |
| Keywords: | net export of embodied carbon emissions input-output model LMDI decomposition GTAP8 China |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
