| 基于粗糙集与灰色理论的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 王耀斌,刘光琇,冯起,司建华,常宗强,席海洋.基于粗糙集与灰色理论的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价[J].资源科学,2012,34(9):1750-1760. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王耀斌 刘光琇 冯起 司建华 常宗强 席海洋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 西北师范大学旅游学院,兰州730000
2. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目:“黑河流域生态—水文样带调查”(编号:91025002);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划“黑河流域生态-水文过程集成研究”培育项目:“黑河下游荒漠河岸林蒸散耗水特征与生态需水试验研究”(编号:40725001);中国科学院“西部之光”人才培养项目:“黑河下游生态水需求研究”;国家自然科学基金项目:“额济纳三角洲河道渗漏机理及动态模拟”(编号:91025024);西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目:“基于粗糙集的西部地区旅游目的地信息共享研究——以甘肃省为例”(编号:SKQNYB11039) |
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| 摘 要： | 争取绿洲向稳定、有序化方向发展是干旱区人类生存和发展所追求的基础目标。本研究以额济纳绿洲为研究对象，将绿洲系统分为自然资源环境子系统、社会经济子系统及自然灾害子系统，应用粗糙集与灰色理论，建立绿洲稳定性评价指标体系，对1990年-2008年的绿洲稳定性做了综合评价，结果发现：①研究时段内，影响额济纳绿洲稳定性的最重要的3个指标依次为地下水水位埋深、年降水量与狼心山径流量；②研究时段内，若以理论划分2004年为界，1990年-2004年绿洲稳定性呈明显的波动趋势，2005年-2008年绿洲稳定性呈平稳略上升趋势；若以黑河分水2000年为界，1990年-2000年绿洲稳定性指数值呈递减趋势，2001年-2008年却呈明显增加趋势；③绿洲稳定性是一个多因素综合体，单个指标的好坏只能在某方面影响绿洲的稳定性。
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| 关 键 词： | 额济纳绿洲 绿洲稳定性 粗糙集 绿洲评价 |
| 修稿时间： | 5/8/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Evaluation of Oasis Stability in Ejina Based on Rough Set and Grey Theory |
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| WANG Yaobin,LIU Guangxiu,FENG Qi,SI Jianhu,CHANG Zongqiang and XI Haiyang.Evaluation of Oasis Stability in Ejina Based on Rough Set and Grey Theory[J].Resources Science,2012,34(9):1750-1760. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yaobin LIU Guangxiu FENG Qi SI Jianhu CHANG Zongqiang and XI Haiyang |
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| Institution: | Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Tourism Institute of Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730000, China;Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | Oases are unique landscapes and form the core of human existence and production in arid areas. Oasis ecosystem stability is directly related to regional economic and social sustainable development. Studies of oasis stability are a focus of oasis research, however, the Ejina Oasis has been little studied. Here, we examined the Ejina Oasis and established an evaluation system for oasis stability (natural resources and environment subsystem, socio-economic subsystem, and natural calamity subsystem). A comprehensive evaluation of the oasis was done from 1990 to 2008, looking at the stability of characterization, drive mechanisms, results of previous studies, methods of rough set and the gray theory. The results show that during the observation period the most important indicator affecting oasis stability was water resource class, including the depth of the groundwater (weighting=0.0974), annual precipitation(0.0926) and runoff from Lang-Xin Mountain (0.0902). The number of dust storms, area of desertification, number of windy days, number of frost days and annual evaporation were also important factors. Socioeconomic indicators were the least important (GDP weighting=0.0615; all other factor weightings less than 0.05). The stability of the Ejina Oasis fluctuated from 1990 to 2004, and followed a steady upward trend from 2005 to 2008. The value of the oasis stability index showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2000, and then a clear upward trend from 2001 to 2008. The oasis stability index was lowest in 1992 and 2001 and highest from 2005 to 2008. Oasis stability is dependent on multiple complex factors in which a single indicator can affect oasis stability only in certain aspects. Our findings indicate that a more comprehensive strategy should be developed to restore the ecological environment of the Ejina Oasis. |
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| Keywords: | Ejina Oasis Oasis stability Rough set Oasis evaluation |
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