| 1961年至2007年全球粮食生产的时空演变特征与地域格局 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵 霞,封志明,杨艳昭.1961年至2007年全球粮食生产的时空演变特征与地域格局[J].资源科学,2010,32(5):907-916. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵 霞 封志明 杨艳昭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对全球近50年来分析的粮食总产、单产、播种面积、人均产量等指标的深入剖析,定量揭示了全球粮食生产的时空格局及其演变特征。分析结果表明,全球粮食生产格局具有明显的时间波动性和空间集中性特征。从时间格局上看,全球粮食生产自20世纪80年代中期以后增速明显减慢,特别是进入90年代以后,粮食总产波动明显,主要原因是同期发达国家粮食播种面积持续减少和发展中国家粮食单产增速减缓。从空间格局上看,全球粮食生产具有明显的地区差异性和空间集中性,主要生产国集中在亚洲和北美洲,欧洲曾是世界粮食主要生产地区,但进入20世纪90年代以来,主要生产国粮食产量下降趋势明显;非洲和大洋洲历来是粮食生产最少的区域,其中非洲地区的粮食总产近年来呈稳定上升趋势,而大洋洲的澳大利亚的粮食生产则具有明显的波动性特点。从地区差距上看,发达国家和发展中国家之间的粮食单产和人均产量差异明显,二者之间的绝对差距呈扩大趋势。上述结果表明,巨大的时空格局差异不仅是造成区域粮食供求形势紧张的根源,也是引发全球粮食粮食危机的重要原因。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球 粮食生产 时空格局 演变特征 地域差异 |
An Evaluation of World Cereals Production in Recent 50 Years from a View of Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Regional Differences |
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| ZHAO Xi,FENG Zhiming and YANG Yanzhao.An Evaluation of World Cereals Production in Recent 50 Years from a View of Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Regional Differences[J].Resources Science,2010,32(5):907-916. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Xi FENG Zhiming and YANG Yanzhao |
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| Abstract: | Food is one of the basic materials for survival, and Scientists and governments have paid an increasing attention to cereal productions in the world. In order to reveal the evolutional trend and its impacts on world food security, the authors investigated spatial-temporal patterns and regional differences in world cereal productions based on time-series world cereal production data of nearly 50 years from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT). By a quantitative analysis on cereal production, planting area, yield and per capita production, it was found that there was an obvious regularity in temporal-fluctuation and spatial-concentration in world cereal production. It showed an obvious decreasing trend in production growth since the middle of the 1980s. Particularly in the 1990s, trends in cereal production became more fluctuant. Correlation analysis among cereal production, harvest area and yield suggested that this may have been due to a combined effect of both developed countries and developing countries. The former contributed to the trend by continuously reducing planting areas and the later exerted its impact through slowing down the rate of yield growth. On the other hand, the spatial distribution of cereal productions showed a concentrating pattern. The United States, China, Russia (USSR) and India were frequently the first four major cereal producers during the period 1961-2007, producing almost 50 percent of the world cereals. Canada, Germany, France, Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico, Myanmar, Argentina, Thailand, Australia, Japan, Italy, Turkey, the United Kingdom and South Africa followed, with their cereal productions usually accounting for around 1 to 3 percent of the world cereals. In order to more reliably reflect distribution characteristics, the authors also examined Pakistan, Vietnam, Nigeria, Iran, Spain, Romania, Poland, Philippines, Hungary and Egypt, which were new producers of ten million tons of cereals. In general, a strong spatial concentration trend of cereal production at regional levels was observed, indicating that Asia and North America were major cereal producers in the world. Europe was ever the second cereal production area. However, affected by a continued reduction in planting area since the 1990s, it has turned to be the third cereal production area over the globe. It was also found that Africa and Australia were of the least importance in world cereal production, but they showed a completely different development trend. Africa increased rapidly at a steady rate while Australia remained an almost fixed proportion at a greatly varying rate. A comparison of three countries showed that a big gap of cereal yield and per capita production among them has become enlarged, which may further intensify the contradiction between supply and demand in the world. It can be concluded the spatial difference in world cereal production is not only one source of stressed regional food supply-demand situations, but also a major driver of global food crisis. |
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| Keywords: | Global cereal production Spatial-temporal pattern Evolution characteristics Regional difference |
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