| 我国跨境资本异常流动的变化趋势及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 辛佳临.我国跨境资本异常流动的变化趋势及影响因素分析[J].科学．经济．社会,2011,29(2):50-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 辛佳临 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国人民大学,经济学院,北京,100872 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用宽口径测算了我国跨境资本异常流动的规模,并在此基础上建立实证模型,分别运用误差修正模型和向量自回归模型定量分析了热钱流入和资本外逃规模的影响因素,探讨跨境资本异常流动与国内宏观经济变量的关系。得出的结论是：我国热钱流入与资本外逃并存,近几年来在总量上呈现出双双扩大态势。热钱流入受国内外利差、外贸依存度、证券资产价格因素的正向影响,受人民币汇率预期、通货膨胀率、外债负债率因素的反向影响,GDP增长率对热钱流入的影响不显著。诸多影响热钱流入的因素,也同样会影响资本外逃,说明了热钱流入有突然逆转成资本外逃的可能性。而对热钱流入和资本外逃作协整检验和格兰杰因果检验的结果进一步证实了二者之间的联系。
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| 关 键 词： | 热钱流入 资本外逃 误差修正模型 向量自回归模型 |
The Trend and Influence Factors Analysis of Abnormal Cross-border Capital Flows in China |
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| XIN Jia-lin.The Trend and Influence Factors Analysis of Abnormal Cross-border Capital Flows in China[J].Science Economy Society,2011,29(2):50-57. |
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| Authors: | XIN Jia-lin |
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| Institution: | XIN Jia-lin(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper employs the broad caliber indicators to measure abnormal cross-border capital flows scale in China,and on this basis,an empirical model is established to quantitatively analyze influence factors of hot money inflows and capital flight,using Error Correction Model and Vector Auto-regression Model respectively,in order to discuss the relationship between abnormal cross-border capital flows and domestic macroeconomic variables.Conclusions are as follows: hot money inflows and capital flight co-exist... |
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| Keywords: | Hot Money Inflows Capital Flight Error Correction Model Vector Auto-regression Model |
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