| 基于遗传算法和过渡矩阵的旅游者特征预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 翁钢民,郑竹叶.基于遗传算法和过渡矩阵的旅游者特征预测研究[J].软科学,2008,22(2):13-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 翁钢民 郑竹叶 |
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| 作者单位： | 燕山大学,经济管理学院,河北,秦皇岛,066004 |
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| 摘 要： | 要使旅游地的旅游管理目标与旅游供给和需求结构相适应,不仅需要预测出未来旅游者的总数量,而且还应该预测出旅游者群体在具体特征方面表现出的不同需求构成,遗传算法与过渡矩阵相结合的方法可以有效地实现这一预测目标。最后以实例证明了这种预测方法的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游者特征 遗传算法 过渡矩阵 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8409（2008）02-0013-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-07-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年7月24日 |
Forecasting Tourists' Characteristics by a Genetic Algorithm with a Transition Matrix |
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| WENG Gang-min,ZHENG Zhu-ye.Forecasting Tourists'''' Characteristics by a Genetic Algorithm with a Transition Matrix[J].Soft Science,2008,22(2):13-17. |
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| Authors: | WENG Gang-min ZHENG Zhu-ye |
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| Abstract: | In the course of organizational modularity designing, there are three value operations, which are value pervasion, value inducting and value integration. At the same time, they create three kinds of value, which are cost value, chosen value and cooperation value. When chasing after the design value, fierce competition for the power of design happens in the modular organization. The evolutionary games in the colony cause the appearance of two kinds of modular organization, one is modular organization one core enterprise, and the other is organization of modular cluster. |
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| Keywords: | organizational modularity design value design domination evolutionary game |
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