| 基于效用理论的高技术产品销售预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 董景荣,吴勇刚.基于效用理论的高技术产品销售预测[J].软科学,2011,25(11):5-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董景荣 吴勇刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆师范大学经济与管理学院,重庆,400047 |
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| 基金项目： | 重庆市高等学校优秀人才支持计划项目，重庆市软科学重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 从效用理论出发,综合考虑影响消费者购买行为的主要因素,建立基于效用理论的高技术产品预测模型。运用CD唱机、DVD播放机和数码相机数据进行实证,将模型与基本Bass模型和PH模型进行比较。结果显示,该模型明显优于基本Bass模型和PH模型。模型在预测时方便可靠,可对产品成长初期销量进行准确预测,为企业制定合理的投资计划提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 效用理论 Bass模型 高技术产品 预测 |
The Sales Forecasting of High-technology Products Based on Utility Theory |
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| DONG Jing-rong,WU Yong-gang.The Sales Forecasting of High-technology Products Based on Utility Theory[J].Soft Science,2011,25(11):5-10. |
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| Authors: | DONG Jing-rong WU Yong-gang |
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| Institution: | DONG Jing-rong,WU Yong-gang(School of Economics & Management,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 400047) |
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| Abstract: | This paper builds a utility-based forecasting model for the high-tech product based on utility theory,considering the integral factors that influence the consumer behavior.With the data of CD,DVD player and digital camera market,this paper conclude that: compared with the Bass model and PH model,this model has superiority to them;it is much more convenient and reliable in sales forecast and making a reasonable investment plan for the enterprises. |
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| Keywords: | utility theory Bass model high-tech products forecasting |
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