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| 基于满意解策略的秘书问题研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 刘庆顺,王渊,王刊良.基于满意解策略的秘书问题研究[J].软科学,2007,21(5):14-16. |
| 作者姓名： | 刘庆顺 王渊 王刊良 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学,管理学院,西安,710049;河北经贸大学,公共管理学院,石家庄,050061 2. 西安交通大学,管理学院,西安,710049;西安工程科技大学,管理学院,西安,710048 3. 西安交通大学,管理学院,西安,710049 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;国家自然科学基金 |
| 摘 要： | 秘书问题是一类序贯观察与选择问题,描述了一种动态的信息搜索与决策过程。已有解决秘书问题的方法,主要特征是以取样选项中的最大值作为标杆,其优点是能保证赢的概率最大,其不足是很少考虑决策者的有限理性与启发式偏见。提出了基于次大值标杆策略的设想,通过理论求解以及仿真实验的方法研究了该策略的特征与规律。结果发现:赢的概率随着标杆由最大值向次大值、第三大值等的变化而逐渐降低,且最优截止阀值也不断后移。 |
| 关 键 词： | 秘书问题 次大值标杆 截止阀法则 满意解 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8409（2007）05-0014-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-04 |
Research on Secretary Problem Based on Satisfactory Solution |
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| LIU Shun-qing,WANG Yuan,WANG Kan-liang.Research on Secretary Problem Based on Satisfactory Solution[J].Soft Science,2007,21(5):14-16. | |
| Authors: | LIU Shun-qing WANG Yuan WANG Kan-liang |
| Abstract: | The secretary problem is a class decision task of sequential observation and selection which describes the dynamic processes of decision making and information searching. The maximal alternative as benchmark is the chief characteristic of many established cutoff rule and optimal policy, and the rule would ensure the most probability to win but not take into account the decision - maker bounded rationality and heuristic bias. So the authors propose the sub -maximum benchmark and test and compare its effectiveness by computer simulation and theory solution. It is found that probability of decision - maker to win becomes linear decrease with benchmark sink down. |
| Keywords: | secretary problem sub - maximum benchmark cutoff rule satisfactory solution |
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