| 基于创新扩散理论的中国电动汽车广义Bass模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 任斌,邵鲁宁,尤建新.基于创新扩散理论的中国电动汽车广义Bass模型[J].软科学,2013,27(4). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 任斌 邵鲁宁 尤建新 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 同济大学经济与管理学院,上海,200092 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 上海市优秀学术带头人计划项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据创新扩散理论,通过对广义Bass模型的扩展,提出了考虑基础设施建设和价格下降影响的中国电动汽车的创新扩散模型。利用混合动力汽车在美国扩散的时间序列数据,采用遗传算法对模型参数进行了估计。通过该模型,预测了在自由、基本和理想三种市场效能情景下2012～2020年电动汽车在中国的销量情况。结果表明,对电动汽车的创新采用者来说,基础设施建设的完善程度比价格更能影响他们的购买决策,在理想情景下,电动汽车的年销量在2019年达到最高点,2020年累计销量达到635万辆。
|
| 关 键 词： | 电动汽车 创新扩散 广义Bass模型 遗传算法 销量预测 |
Development of a Generalized Bass Model for Chinese Electric Vehicles Based on Innovation Diffusion Theory |
| |
| REN Bin
,
SHAO Lu-ning
,
YOU Jian-xin.Development of a Generalized Bass Model for Chinese Electric Vehicles Based on Innovation Diffusion Theory[J].Soft Science,2013,27(4). |
| |
| Authors: | REN Bin SHAO Lu-ning YOU Jian-xin |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an innovation diffusion model for Chinese electric vehicles(EVs)based on the extension of generalized Bass model considering infrastructure and price reduction effects.Genetic Algorithm was adopted to estimate the parameters using the diffusion data of Hybrid Electric Vehicle in United States.The developed model forecasted the sales of EVs in China from 2012 to 2020 under the three different scenarios.The result shows that the purchase decisions of EVs innovators are more likely affected by the construction of infrastructure rather than the price.In the ideal scenario,the EVs sales is expected to reach the peak in 2019 and the accumulative amount will achieve 6.35 million in 2020. |
| |
| Keywords: | electric vehicle innovation diffusion generalized Bass model Genetic Aalgorithm sales forecasting |
| 本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
