| 不可预警突发事件下城区应急交通分配模型及算例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李蜜,王霞,关贤军.不可预警突发事件下城区应急交通分配模型及算例[J].软科学,2011,25(3):121-125. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李蜜 王霞 关贤军 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学,经济与管理学院,上海,201804 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"985"二期"城市建设与防灾"子项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 在假定不破坏城市道路的基础上,以"四阶段法"对不可预警突发公共事件下应急交通疏散进行分析,研究了受影响区域人员的疏散、救援人员和物资进入等问题。首先按类型分析法对突发事件下城区的交通需求进行预测,在此基础上得出应急交通分配矩阵的求解方程,对应急疏散所需车辆及往返次数进行了预测,然后结合路网情况和时间因素改进了应急交通需求量的加载模型,并通过算例对所建立的应急交通分配模型进行计算和验证。
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| 关 键 词： | 不可预警突发事件 需求预测 应急交通分配矩阵 疏散车次 |
Distribution Model and Example of Urban Transportation in Unpredictable Sudden Emergency |
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| LI Mi,WANG Xia,GUAN Xian-jun.Distribution Model and Example of Urban Transportation in Unpredictable Sudden Emergency[J].Soft Science,2011,25(3):121-125. |
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| Authors: | LI Mi WANG Xia GUAN Xian-jun |
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| Institution: | LI Mi,WANG Xia,GUAN Xian-jun(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804) |
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| Abstract: | On the premise of emergency situations not to damage the urban road systems,urban evacuation,rescuer and material entrance in unexpected public emergency are analyzed based on four-stage method.An equation for emergency traffic distribution matrix,round trip times and evacuation vehicles amount is established.A modified cumulative normal distribution function of response curve to model emergency transportation demands on departure time is tested. |
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| Keywords: | unpredictable sudden emergency demand prediction emergency traffic distribution matrix times of evacuation vehicle |
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