| 非线性视角下中国碳排放的影响因素与区域差异分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜国刚,顾婷婷,赵杨.非线性视角下中国碳排放的影响因素与区域差异分析[J].软科学,2016(7):53-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜国刚 顾婷婷 赵杨 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 常州大学 商学院，江苏 常州 213164; 常州大学 国家与江苏石油石化发展战略研究基地，江苏 常州 213164;2. 常州大学 商学院,江苏 常州,213164;3. 吉林大学 东北亚研究院,长春,130012 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(13YJC790058)，江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目(2015ZDIXM028)，吉林大学基本科研业务费项目(450060482331)，吉林省社会科学基金博士扶持项目(2014BS21)，江苏省“青蓝工程”项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对我国各地碳排放量不均衡现象,对中国1999~2013年30个省份碳排放进行度量。在STIRPAT模型基础上,采用面板门限回归估计对碳排放影响因素进行考察,分析经济增长因素对碳排放量的非线性影响。结果发现:GDP水平变量为门限变量时存在单门限效应,将模型划分为高低两个区制;GDP增长速度变量为门限变量时存在双门限效应,将模型划分为高、中、低3个区制。在高GDP水平区制和中、低GDP增速区制下,EKC存在拐点。根据估计结果将中国碳排放情况划分为6个象限,对各地区进行划分,并对碳排放区域差异的形成原因进行了解释。
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| 关 键 词： | 二氧化碳排放 影响因素 区域差异 面板门限模型 |
Study on the Carbon Emission Influence Factors and Regional Difference in China from the Perspective of Nonlinearity |
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| Abstract: | Nowadays, China has faced on the current situation of highly total carbon dioxide emissions and the emissions im-balance in each area. After measuring the carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China from 1999 to 2013, this paper investi-gated the affecting factors by Panel Threshold Model estimation based on a STIRPAT model, and discussed the core reason of regional difference in carbon emissions, analyzed nonlinear effects of economy growth factor on carbon emissions. The re-sults showed that the model could be divided into high and low regimes because single threshold effect existed when GDP level variables as the threshold variables, and the model also could be divided into high, middle and low regimes because double threshold effect exists when GDP growth rate variables as the threshold variables. The Environmental Kuznets Curve ( EKC) exists inflection point in high GDP level regime and middle and low regimes of GDP growth rate. In the end, it di-vided Chinese carbon emissions into six quadrants and classified each province according to the estimation results, and inter-preted the forming reasons of carbon emissions' regional difference. |
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| Keywords: | carbon dioxide emissions affecting factors regional difference panel threshold model |
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