| 政府科研投资的经济效果研究——基于SciBud-CGE模型的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李丽,汪德辉.政府科研投资的经济效果研究——基于SciBud-CGE模型的实证分析[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2009,30(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李丽 汪德辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 深圳信息职业技术学院,信息经济系,广东,深圳,518029
2. 重庆大学,经济与工商管理学院,重庆,400030 |
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| 摘 要： | 以政府科研资本投入数据的离析及建立的相关模块,作为政府研发资本存量增长的分析基础,引入SciBud-CGE模型仿真政府研发投资的冲击效果.实证结果显示,政府科研投资对经济增长率存在短中期不同的正面效果,尤以第2至第4年的递延效果最为明显,长期状态之下,冲击则逐步消失,回归均衡;政府研发投资除了带动科技相关产业增长外,亦排挤初级产业的产出;长期之下,虽对出口和实际工资有正面影响,但会引发轻微失业问题,并伴随一定通胀现象.
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| 关 键 词： | 政府科研投资 动态一般均衡 经济效果 |
The Economic Impact of Government R&D Investment:An Empirical Analysis Based on SciBud-CGE Model |
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| LI Li,WANG Dehui.The Economic Impact of Government R&D Investment:An Empirical Analysis Based on SciBud-CGE Model[J].Science of Science and Management of S.& T.,2009,30(12). |
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| Authors: | LI Li WANG Dehui |
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| Abstract: | Applying SciBud-CGE model to simulate the economic impact of government R&D investment in China,evidence shows that government R&D investment gives rise to different short-term and medium-term impacts on real GDP that are mostly felt in the second and forth years of their implementation among different industries.These impacts then gradually converge back to equilibrium in the long run.Government R&D investment boosts the technology of high-tech industries and increases exports,but it also crowds out the output of primary industries.Although the government R&D investment has a positive effect on the real wage,its effect on inflation and unemployment should not be overlooked. |
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| Keywords: | government R&D investment dynamic general equilibrium economic impact |
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