| 基于VAR模型的宁波制造业与物流业联动发展分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢莉,李平龙,贾让成.基于VAR模型的宁波制造业与物流业联动发展分析[J].科技与管理,2014(3):25-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢莉 李平龙 贾让成 |
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| 作者单位： | 宁波大学商学院;宁波卫生职业技术学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 以界定制造业与物流业的关系与互为贡献度为联动研究的切入点,依据宁波市1998—2012年的发展数据,应用Eviews6.0软件,采用VAR模型进行实证分析,得出如下结论：与制造业不同,物流业并未在国民经济增长过程中发挥应有的作用;物流业尚不可与制造业相抗衡,制造业发展对物流业的贡献度高于物流业发展对制造业的贡献度,联动发展处于从非对称性互惠共生模式过渡到对称性互惠共生模式的中间组织状态,模式为制造业推动型增长模式。继而有针对性的对促进宁波市制造业与物流业联动发展提出可行性的对策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 制造业 物流业 联动发展 VAR模型 |
Based on VAR model research on joint development of manufacturing and logistics industry from Ningbo |
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| Institution: | XIE Li, LI Ping-long, JIA Rang-cheng ( 1. Faculty of Buiness, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China; 2. Ningbo College of Health Science, Ningbo 315211, China) |
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| Abstract: | The study focuses on the joint development of manufacturing and logistics industry. This is the entry point and key development points in studying Ningbo＇ s manufacturing and logistics industry. It studies Ningbo City man- ufacturing and joint development of the logistics industry. The paper is based on the development data of, Ningbo City in 1998--2012, applications Eviews6. 0 software, and the VAR model. The paper draws the following conclu- sion： Manufacturing Development the contributes the logistics industry more than it benefits from the latter. While manufacturing sector plays a major role in the growth process of the national economy. On the contrary, the logistics industry did not play its due role. Although Logistics industry can be independently exist, it still not strong enough to compete with the manufacturing industry. Two industrial linkage is in the middle of mutualism organization from the transition to the symmetry of the pattern. And the contribution from the two complement to each other is differ- ent, which decides the manufacturing-driven growth model. |
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| Keywords: | manufacturing logistics joint development VAR model |
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