Technological paradigms and technological trajectories: A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change |
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| Authors: | Giovanni Dosi |
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| Institution: | Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Brighton U.K. |
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| Abstract: | The procedures and the nature of “technologies” are suggested to be broadly similar to those which characterize “science”. In particular, there appear to be “technological paradigms” (or research programmes) performing a similar role to “scientific paradigms” (or research programmes). The model tries to account for both continuous changes and discontinuities in technological innovation. Continuous changes are often related to progress along a technological trajectory defined by a technological paradigm, while discontinuities are associated with the emergence of a new paradigm. One-directional explanations of the innovative process, and in particular those assuming “the market” as the prime mover, are inadequate to explain the emergence of new technological paradigms. The origin of the latter stems from the interplay between scientific advances, economic factors, institutional variables, and unsolved difficulties on established technological paths. The model tries to establish a sufficiently general framework which accounts for all these factors and to define the process of selection of new technological paradigms among a greater set of notionally possible ones.The history of a technology is contextual to the history of the industrial structures associated with that technology. The emergence of a new paradigm is often related to new “schumpeterian” companies, while its establishment often shows also a process of oligopolistic stabilization. |
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