Double-boom cycles and the comeback of science-push and market-pull |
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| Authors: | Ulrich Schmoch |
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| Institution: | Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Breslauer Street 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany |
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| Abstract: | The discussion about the course of technology development began in the 1960s with linear science-push and market-pull models and received a decisive impetus in the 1980s with the introduction of non-linear, recursive models. The effect of these non-linear characteristics on the chronological development of a field is less clear, in particular as to science-based technology. Several authors discuss such developments of technologies, but with a focus on market activities. Some studies point to cyclical instead of logistic developments so that a closer look at the underlying mechanisms suggests itself. For an improved understanding, a clear distinction between science, technology, and market activities proves to be important. A long-term analysis of the development of science-based technology fields and related science fields leads to the discovery of typical double-boom cycles of technology, where the first boom can be associated with science/technology-push and the second boom with market-pull, but with feedback loops and non-linear characteristics. The scientific development shows two growth periods with an intermittent stagnation period where the turning points precede the referring technology developments, indicating a relevant impact of science on technology. In contrast, a cyclical development of the market activities in parallel to technology is not visible. |
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| Keywords: | Double-boom cycle Long-term development Science-push Market-pull Technology cycle |
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