| 基于灰色系统理论的专利授权数预测研究——以辽宁省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛志勇,郭田宇.基于灰色系统理论的专利授权数预测研究——以辽宁省为例[J].情报探索,2021(1):41-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛志勇 郭田宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的/意义]旨在准确、合理地对专利授权数进行预测。方法/过程]运用灰色系统理论,对待选因素进行灰关联度计算,选择关联度较高因素的统计数据,形成被比较序列,再结合参考序列建立GM(1,N)模型,对专利授权数进行预测和误差检验。结果/结论]通过与常规GM(1,N)模型对比,建立的GM(1,6)模型的预测准确度优于前者,克服了个人主观性对影响因素选择的干扰,平均相对误差仅为5.589%,验证了模型的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 专利授权数 灰色系统理论 灰关联度 GM(1 N)模型 |
Analysis of Patent Authorization Number Based on Grey System Theory:Case Study of Liaoning Province |
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| Mao Zhiyong,Guo Tianyu.Analysis of Patent Authorization Number Based on Grey System Theory:Case Study of Liaoning Province[J].Information Research,2021(1):41-46. |
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| Authors: | Mao Zhiyong Guo Tianyu |
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| Institution: | (School of Business Administration,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao Liaoning 125105) |
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| Abstract: | Purpose/significance]The paper aims to accurately and reasonably predict the number of patent grants.Method/process]Based on the grey system theory,the paper calculates the grey correlation degree of the selected factors,and selects the statistical data of the factors with higher correlation degree to form the compared sequence.Then,the paper combines with the reference sequence to establish the GM(1,n)model,so as to predict the number of patent grants and conduct error test.Result/conclusion]Compared with the conventional GM(1,n)model,the prediction accuracy of the GM(1,6)model established in this paper is better than the former,which overcomes the interference of personal subjectivity on the selection of influencing factors,and the average relative error is only 5.589%,which verifies the effectiveness of the model. |
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| Keywords: | patent authorization number grey system theory grey correlation degree GM(1 N)model |
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