| 我国"十一五"期间能源强度下降趋势分析--如何实现能源强度下降20%的目标 |
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| 引用本文： | 何建坤,张希良.我国"十一五"期间能源强度下降趋势分析--如何实现能源强度下降20%的目标[J].中国软科学,2006(4):33-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何建坤 张希良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 清华大学,现代管理研究中心,北京,100084
2. 清华大学,能源环境经济研究院,北京,100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对我国到2010年如何实现GDP能源强度比“十五”末期降低20％左右的目标进行了定量化的系统分析，提出大体上1／3可依靠产业结构调整和轻重工业结构调整，1／3可依靠提高能源转换和利用效率，1／3可依靠产业技术升级和产品增加值率的提高以及对居民生活能源消费的正确引导来实现的分析结论。同时还对未来不同GDP增长速度对实现目标的影响进行了分析和评价，GDP增长速度越快，越有利于GDP能源强度下降目标的实现．但期未能源总消带哥的增长也会越大．
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| 关 键 词： | 能源强度 "十一五"能源目标 系统分析 政策措施 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-9753(2006)04-0033-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-02-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-02 |
Analysis Declining Tendency in China's Energy Consumption Intensity during the 11 th Five-Year-Plan Period |
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| HE Jian-kun,ZHANG Xi-liang.Analysis Declining Tendency in China''s Energy Consumption Intensity during the 11 th Five-Year-Plan Period[J].China Soft Science,2006(4):33-38. |
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| Authors: | HE Jian-kun ZHANG Xi-liang |
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| Institution: | 1. Research Center for Contemporary Management, Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084 ,China ; 2. Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economy, Tsinghua University, Belting 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | The Chinese government has recently set a target of reducing energy consumption intensity by 20% during the 11~(th) Five-YearPlan period(2006-2010).This paper has carried out a quantitative analysis of the major factors affecting China's energy consumption and ways to achieve the target.The study shows that the readjustment of industry structure and the share of heavy and light industry,increasing energy conversion and utilization efficiency,and upgrading the value of products and improving the residents' energy consumption mode will play the important role in achieving the target of reducing 20% energy consumption intensity,contributing one third respectively.The paper has also analyzed the impacts of GDP growth on the target,and concluded that a higher GDP growth rate is more conducive to achieve the target whereas increasing the total amount of energy consumption at the end of the period. |
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| Keywords: | energy intensity energy target for 2010 systems analysis policy |
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