| 交通事故致因分析的突变模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈斐敏.交通事故致因分析的突变模型[J].福建工程学院学报,2006,4(6):751-754,758. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈斐敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 福州大学环境与资源学院,福建,福州,350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省科技三项费资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用非线性科学领域的突变论分析交通事故致因，构建了交通事故致因的突变模型，给出了交通事故突变模型的势函数形式，分析了系统在稳定区和非稳定区域状态变化的定量关系，并解释了交通事故发生前后系统控制参数的连续变化引起系统状态的突然变化以及不同的控制参数对事故危害结果的影响程度。结果表明：要想控制交通事故的发生就必须控制人为因素和物的因素之组合落在稳定区域内。防止系统的状态越过潜在突变区；防止事故发生的基本原理就是使人和物的运动轨迹在临界点外。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通事故 致因分析 突变模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-4348（2006）06-0751-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-09-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年9月6日 |
Catastrophe model of traffic accident causation analysis |
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| Shen Feimin.Catastrophe model of traffic accident causation analysis[J].Journal of Fujian University of Technology,2006,4(6):751-754,758. |
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| Authors: | Shen Feimin |
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| Abstract: | Causes of traffic accidents were analyzed via catastrophe theory of nonlinear study. A catastrophe model of traffic accident causation was constructed. The potential function of the catastrophe model was presented. The quantitative relation of the system changes in the stable region and unstable region was resolved and the system catastrophe in a traffic accident and the influence of different control parameters on the result of accidents were explicated. The results show that the combined influence factors of persons, vehicles, etc. should be maintained within the stable region to control the occurrence of traffic accidents, and that the system change should be kept within the catastrophe threshold and the movement trajectory of persons and vehicles should be out of the critical points. |
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| Keywords: | traffic accident causation analysis catastrophe model |
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