| 人口发展与经济增长的动态计量分析——以广东省为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡春春.人口发展与经济增长的动态计量分析——以广东省为例[J].宜宾师范高等专科学校学报,2014(1):64-70. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡春春 |
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| 作者单位： | 韶关学院经济管理学院,广东韶关512005 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部课题＂＇四化两型＇下湖南产业集群生态升级战略研究＂（11YJC630229）;教育厅青年课题＂低碳经济下中部产业集群生态升级机理及路径研究＂（10B055） |
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| 摘 要： | 在搜集2000～2011年广东省人口总量、人口增长率、人口年龄结构、人口城乡结构、净迁移人口数等人口发展数据与经济增长数据的基础上,通过建立VAR模型,对人口发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了协整检验,并做了脉冲响应分析及方差分解分析.结果表明：广东省人口发展与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的关系；人口总量、人口增长、人口年龄结构、城乡结构、人口迁移与经济增长之间具有相互影响关系,但影响程度各有不同.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口 经济增长 VAR模型 |
A Dynamic Econometric Analysis of Population and Economic Development |
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| HU Chun-chun.A Dynamic Econometric Analysis of Population and Economic Development[J].Journal of Yibin Teachers College,2014(1):64-70. |
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| Authors: | HU Chun-chun |
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| Institution: | HU Chun-chun ( School of Economics and Management, Shaoguan University, Shaoguan 512005, Guangdong, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analysis of the data about the total population, population growth rate, population age struc- ture, urban and rural population distribution structure, population migration situation and their relationship with eco- nomic growth from 2000 to 2011 in Guangdong Province, this thesis carries out an cointegration test on the relationship between population and economic development, and comes up with the impulse response analysis and variance decom- position analysis through the VAR model. The results indicates a long-term stable relationship between the population and economic development, showing that the population and economic growth are interconnected, but the degree of in- fluence differs. |
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| Keywords: | population economic development l the VAt/model |
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